Dust of Snow
The way a crow
Shook down on me
The dust of snow
From a hemlock tree
Has given my heart
A change of mood
And saved some part
Of a day I had rued.
–Robert Frost
…if you’re reading this, you’re well on your way to not making the same mistakes I made during at least the beginning of the 2022-2023 fantasy hockey season.
And if you’ve been reading my pieces up to this point, you’ve probably come to realize that the single biggest mistake I made was that I hadn’t done my homework. Oh sure, I did the requisite mock drafts (I’m not so sure why that was so important, but I digress), but I failed to realize that (duh) “past performance is no guarantee of future results” aka the Nashville Predators Corollary. More on that later.
So as a floor, don’t make that same mistake.
During new teacher orientation a hundred years ago, my superintendent taught me a lesson that I still remember to this day, i.e. avoid giving homework over the weekend.
So no homework, but…
Say it together now, “let the wisdom imparted by the experts here at Apples and Ginos be your guiding lights.” By experts, I’m not referring to yours truly, but instead, the analytical framework provided by Nate, Blake, Josh, John, and Mark. These guys are masters at helping us make sense of the absurdity that fantasy hockey is at times. And, if I may be so bold, use my articles as a sort of anecdotal mattress supported by that same framework.
Combining these two angles will allow you to make better decisions, have more fun, and hopefully bring you continued success.
Now, on to the busting my chops section:
This is NOT going to be a Jonathon Huberdeau, Johnny Gaudreau, Jacob Markstrom et al. rehash. Their collective hideous seasons have been well-chronicled just about everywhere. So instead, I’m going to focus on the guys who bummed me out the most this past year. I’m sure you’ll be able to find some misery in my company.
In no particular order:
Yahoo 10 Team Points League
—Filip Forsberg, NSH-LW: My fifth overall draft pick, I selected Forsberg based upon his 2021-2022 season not understanding nor appreciating the concept of negative regression with respect to player performance. While nothing is a guarantee, I won’t make that mistake again as he finished an injury marred season ranked 237 on Yahoo. In my 10-team league, I dropped and added Forsberg on a number of occasions, probably held on for too long, and suffered a slow slide hoping that his performance would somehow improve as the season progressed. It never did.
—Josh Norris, OTT-C: Picking Norris with my seventh pick, I was lured into believing that Norris would break out this season. An early season serious injury dashed those hopes and I held him on my IR until he returned later on for a minute before reinjuring his shoulder (I think?) and lost him for the remainder of the year. Maybe next year? Whatever the case, he was still a bust by my definition having spent way too much draft capital on so high a pick.
—Aaron Ekblad, FLA-D: His early season injury meant a drop in my league and I licked my chops awaiting his waiver period to end. I should have known that something was up when no one in my league claimed him. Thinking I’d hit the jackpot, I scooped him up and awaited his return to prominence…I’m still waiting. Yes I realize that the Panthers are in the Finals and that Ekblad sort of picked it up a bit down the stretch, but…And while I’m at it, I’m also gonna whine and complain about the Panthers in general. Outside of Montour, Tkachuk, and Verhaeghe, not a fan. A little too laissez faire of a fantasy and actual season for my liking. But what do I know?
—Matt Duchene, NSH-RW: Ugh. Filip Forsberg Lite. Like The Moustachio above, I fell victim to Duchene’s previous year bust out and paid the price when I drafted him with my 8th selection. I was like, a Forsberg/Duchene stack! Let’s go!…Nowhere fast. Nightmare. Never again. Not gonna do it.
—Mackenzie Weegar, CGY-D: Dude. Seriously?! Weegar was the second defenseman I drafted (behind Towes…another sneaky disappointment) and he just could not get ANYTHING going at all this year. Second pairing, little to no PP time, and playing in Calgary, this year, doomed any possible production. I mean this was really bad for most of the year. Not sure even with a new coach, I’d spend any draft reach on Weegs next year. In fact, I’m really debating if I should adopt some Zero-D to go along with my Zero-G. At a minimum, I’m probably going to fade defensemen next year unless I’m staring at Makar in like the middle rounds. So yeah. That’s not happening. Killing me here Weegar.
—Pierre-Luc Dubois, WPG-C: Fellas, I coulda used a little more cowbell. For the past two seasons, players I’ve rostered from Winnipeg and St. Louis have really frustrated me. And PLD was right up there. Mind you, my league is relatively shallow (10 teams) so I can be a little choosy with my adds and drops. But even so, PLD left me wanting for more, especially considering that he’s a center where there’s probably more depth than at any other position. Dubois and the Jets got off to a good start, but as the season wore on, not so much. I always felt as though he was either fighting off some undisclosed injury or he had his mind elsewhere, “oui?”
—Robert Thomas, STL-C/RW: O.k, look. I like R&B. Not just the B. Especially when for the past two years, St. Louis has had me singing them. So many folks were screaming at me to “just pick up Thomas,” last year (I did), that I was convinced the Ass(ist)Man would continue down that road. But just like so many of my other misses this year, past performance does not guarantee future results…again. And the Blues are the flip side of my Winnipeg/St. Louis coin. Enough with the line changes, infirmary trips, and trying to figure out who’s in the coach’s doghouse. I’m pretty certain that from now on, “team context” is going to mean a lot more than a performance indicator for me. I’m really going to try to pay attention to a team’s dynamic in addition to player analytics. And my past two years of experiences with the Jets and the Blues will be a starting point going forward. That is, until I forget.
—Evan Bouchard, EDM-D: Stay with me on this one folks cuz this might get a little convoluted. I drafted Bouch as my second defenseman based on my unfounded notion that he would be the quarterback on Edmonton’s power play. I hadn’t taken into consideration the reality that there was this guy named Tyson Barrie. Gotta do your homework Professor! Anyway, he was pretty much a dud for most of the year primarily through no fault of his own. However, once Edmonton traded Barrie away and handed the job to Bouchard, he started to flourish into the player that everyone foresaw. So going forward, D(evan), uhhhh, whatareyoudooinhere? is going to be squarely in my crosshairs. Again, unless I’m staring at a Makar in the mid-rounds, Bouchard will be one of my first defenseman targeted in next year’s draft. It’s not exactly a hot take, but I think he’s just starting to scratch the surface.
—Artturi Lehkonen, COL-LW/RW: Like A-aron above, another manager dropped Lehk early on and I kept my fingers crossed until I was able to pick him up under cover of darkness. I patiently waited through his doldrums knowing that Colorado had such a great fantasy playoff schedule. And I waited. And waited. Then wait, look. A sighting. Another sighting and I thought we were off to the races. Let’s go! Considering that one of our league’s playoff contenders had a roster filled with ‘lanche-ettes, I at least was hoping that my Lehk could be a hedge against their bets. As scripted, and coming on a night in which Lehkonen had three points in like the first period of a late in the season game…A BROKEN FINGER! Are you kidding me! Out until perhaps the real playoffs were to begin. What?! Ugh. Lehkonen’s listing here is more out of frustration than anything else because overall, he was pretty o.k. But hey, it’s my list. And I’m still kind of annoyed.
—Ivan Provorov, PHI-D: There seems to be a pattern here with my defensive draft picks right? They were awful, Professor! Anyway, I should add that I worked hard early on to rectify the errors of my youth by trading for Alex Pietrangelo and Brent Burns and adding Vince Dunn later on off waivers. However, I still suffered with Provorov for a while. He got off to a good start but stagnated enough that I was forced to part ways relatively quickly. Once again, this was due to me not doing my homework up front. It sounds like common sense with hindsight, but I hadn’t kept in mind that he was probably best suited as a defensemen in a Categories League. Unfortunately, I was in a Points League! It was the pressure of the draft; I was young and hadn’t yet seen the Apples and Ginos light, I didn’t know any better. I was weak! Thankfully (and hopefully) I’ve learned.
Thanks for reading and I hope you’re enjoying the offseason.
Mike@Fantasy Hockey Professor
Apples and Ginos 