It’s that time of year we are all preparing for our drafts and looking at ADPs from what are supposed to be credible sources. I wanted to jump in with today’s article and release a public service announcement to all my fellow GMs out there. Stop what you are doing and listen!
Do not over value goalies and do not overdraft them. This will only create one of two things for you: 1. Unnecessary hope of success & 2. That inevitable gut punch when they let you down or go down in flames to under performance. Take it from me betting on goalies to win you your fantasy championship is like playing Russian roulette with more than one bullet in the gun.
So now the question remains if the above is true and we want to avoid that inevitable feeling of despair like when our first girlfriend in high school who we thought we “loved” dumps us, how do we build a tolerable strategy and find value for this volatile position. Well like that beautiful timed rebound girl from the smoker’s pit, I am here to guide you and open your mind to new possibilities on “love”, which we will call goalies with some deep value “thrift store buys” you can find late in your drafts. So, let’s dive into that blowout rack and bring your new girlfriend along for the ride. I assure you these deals will be of the highest quality and will help you build a more competitive and stable team coming out of your drafts.
Deep Value Starters
Pheonix Copley & Cam Talbot: Los Angeles Kings
This tandem is like digging through the shoe racks at the thrift store and finding a used pair of Air Force ones in your size. They have some wear and scuff marks, but they are still Air Force ones at a deep discount, buy, buy, buy!
They are both entering a contract year and will both be looking to post strong numbers. This will either give them an opportunity to stay in LA or earn a potentially longer term and financially beneficial opportunity elsewhere. Only the latter is true for Copley vs Talbot as he is the younger of the two.
I can’t stress this enough: they will be a tandem this season and the most likely scenario is splitting the net 50/50. Both posted a sub-3 GAA last season with Copley besting Talbot in wins (24 vs 17) & SV% (.903 vs .898); this would give the edge to Copley to steal starts later in the season when the Kings are making their playoff push.
If targeting them in your drafts look after the 13th round. The Kings are sound defensive team, and both goalies will have strong win and GAA upside. Strategically if choosing one to target in your drafts lean Copley but the more effective strategy would be to target the tandem as your 1b & 3rd goalie options.
Joonas Korpisalo: Ottawa Senators
This goalie is like walking into your local Giant Tiger (Canadian based discount store) and thinking to yourself why am I here? Then you turn to leave and boom it hits you right in the face, a hoodie from your favourite team, legitimately branded like something right from the team’s swag collection, got to have it!
The Sens have invested heavily in Korpi being their bonafide number one. This will hold true this season and he is absolutely going to get the bulk of the starts. The Sens will need to tighten up defensively, but Korpi can walk backwards into 30+ wins as this team looks primed to make a leap in the Eastern conference.
Korpi posted great numbers last year splitting his season with the Jackets and then the Kings with a .914 SV% & a sub 3 GAA. Even if the GAA inflates back to low 3s like when he was with the Jackets, it is still realistic to think that he still can steal games for the Sens. With Norris back from injury and Chychrun in house for a full season this team is destined to see positive regression 5v5 & improve defensively which will only help Korpi’s numbers.
If targeting him in your drafts look after the 12th round. Strategically Korpi can be a fantasy GM’s 1a if they adapt the late round bargain strategy for goalies and build a deep team of skaters before taking him late in drafts.
Devon Levi & Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: Buffalo Sabres
Ok so we all know that boxer briefs usually come packaged in twos. We want them to be soft, supportive but not too snug, but damn the high-quality ones are so expensive. I know what you’re going to say, shopping for bargain priced underwear, that’s gross. I am not asking you to by used underwear, I am suggesting you let your wife take you to Winners (another Canadian discount store) and see the possibilities. You might find some Calvin Klein briefs at 50% off and this exactly what you are going to get by targeting Levi and UPL in your drafts. The highest quality, smoothest feeling, fit just right kind of goalies at a ridiculously affordable price.
Yes, I know the Sabres still have Comrie under contract but get that guy out of my face! The future is now for this team, and they will take the biggest leap in the Eastern Conference. This will be led by their ability to score, Levi and UPL.
Yes, I know that the Sabres are not great defensively and this might not be great for either goalies GAA and SV%. However, in a small sample size last year with the team Levi was able to post a .905 SV% and a sub 3 GAA. UPL has limited value at best as Levi looks to be the favourite to take the starting job, something to watch coming out of camp. It is realistic to think that this is a 60/40 split favouring Levi.
However, if I were to put money on it and Levi can sustain his performance from the small sample size last season, he can easily get 70% of the starts. Levi fits with how this team is progressing in its development and could easily be a breakout candidate at the position this season. Whichever of these young goalies gets the bulk of the starts, the wins upside is there with how this team can score.
If targeting them in your drafts these guys will be there late, after the 13th round. Strategically it is Levi you want to target unless something drastic happens out of camp to change his status with the team. He can fit into any GM’s team as their 1b or a 3rd goalie stash with high upside.
Elvis Merzlikins: Columbus Blue Jackets
Elvis is like that pair of jeans you find at the thrift store that has some name brand you’ve never heard of before, but you try them on anyways and damn they are comfortable. You don’t know what to expect in terms of quality or comparability to your trusted Levis, but you buy them anyways. Once home you look up the brand online, only to find they have a proven track record in northern German as being some of the best jeans ever made, score!
I am no way saying that Elvis is one of the best goalies in the league that no one knows about, as this is just not true. Yes, he is coming off the worst season of his career, but the Jackets were devastated by injury last year, which certainly didn’t help. Through his four-year NHL career, he does have solid overall numbers with a .906 SV% AND A 3.33 GAA. So even if he returns to his career average, we are looking at an above average starting goalie.
This is a realistic expectation for Elvis this year with the team now fully healthy, revamped and a upgraded D core in Columbus. This should provide some defensive stability on the backend especially with their new coach Mike Babcock and the defensive system he will put in place. The Jackets could see a similar expected leap in performance as a team this season as the Senators, and maybe even as high as the Sabres’ expectations. This should lead Elvis to have a very stable floor and solid ceiling, especially for wins.
This is certainly a goalie that most GMs will not have on their draft boards. This means ridiculous late value for a goalie that will see 60-70% of a much-improved team’s starts. If targeting him in your drafts, you can be sure he will be there after the 14th round. Strategically Elvis can fit into any fantasy team as a viable 1b or 3rd goaltender with upside. He should be considered as a late value bounce back candidate at the position.
Honorable Mention – High Upside Backup Stashes/Handcuffs
Akira Schmid: New Jersey Devils
Schmid proved last year when called on he is one of the best backups in the league especially late in the season and into the playoffs. Vanecek should signs of wearing down and lacking consistency which lead to Schmid taking starts and becoming the Devils starter in the playoffs. Schmid (although limited to only 18 starts last year) posted a .922 SV%, 2.13 GAA and more importantly a .643 Quality Start %. Basically, maintaining these stats in the playoffs where he started 8 of the Devil’s 15 games.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Vanecek wavers at all and Schmid takes the net. More realistically it should not surprise anyone if Schmid at least pushes Vanecek for greater starts share this season. This immediately gives Schmid value as one of your final picks in your draft especially playing for what should be one of the best teams in the East if not the league. At the very least he should be on everyone’s watch list or if you draft Vanecek, Schmid should absolutely be your back up/3rd goalie.
Jeremy Swayman: Boston Bruins
Swayman may be the best late round value goalie in any draft as well as the league’s best backup. Even though Ullmark had a fantastic year and won the Vezina, very few people have probably noticed that Swayman pushed Ullmark to almost a 50/50 time share last season. This also came with great numbers: a .920 SV%, 2.27 GAA and a .636 Quality Start %.
Yes, the Bruins have some question marks up front, but they are still a good hockey team with a great backend and clearly two strong goalies in a 1a/1b situation. Fantasy GMs will unfortunately reach early on Ullmark, let them. This will not be the case with Swayman as he would still be viewed as the “backup” by many, the numbers clearly say otherwise. If you can get him after the 10th round this is huge value for a 1b goalie who plays at an elite level and on a sound defensive team. This will still hold true even if the Bruins inevitability take a step back from their team performance last season.
Joseph Woll: Toronto Maple Leafs
Woll is certainly positioned behind Samsonov for the Leafs, however in his small sample size last year he posted solid numbers, winning 6 of 7 starts, .932 SV% & a 2.16 GAA. This included very similar stats in the playoffs in 2 starts. Woll’s value is strictly based on three things: his performance, Samsonov’s health, and being on one the best teams in the East.
The Leafs are in win now mode so if Samsonov gets hurt or underperforms, it will be the Woll show. This gives Woll very deep draft appeal or at the very least he should be on your watch list as if opportunity presents itself his upside would be huge!
I wish you all happy shopping in your drafts this season! I beg of you please do not reach on goalies let your buddies do it, it will only help you have the better team. I hope that these bargain priced insights gave you a little something to help you get better at fantasy today. Remember goalies are a complete mind melting element of the game we all love, don’t do that to yourself and shop for deep value at the position. Until next time my dudes keep your blades sharp and get those pucks on net, cheers!
- Craig@craigerslife or look me up on the A&G or FHFH discord channels @CraigerAG32
- Co-Host of the Five Hole Taxisquad Podcast a FHFH presentation available on any of your podcast providers.
Apples and Ginos 