Mark Barbour (@18sktrs, 18skaters.com)
Introduction
Similar to the Zero-G approach to drafting goalies, I like to invest as little draft capital as possible in defensemen. Put another way, I like to draft elite forwards and live or die with them. This article describes my process.
Step 1: Get Good Skater Projections
I don’t rely on the skater projections (or ADP data) offered by the various fantasy hockey platforms. Instead, I make my own skater projections. Now most people aren’t going to do that, so the first step for most people will be to find reliable skater projections that can be customized to the settings in your league. There are a few decent sources for projections (and some not-so-decent sources) but an excellent choice is to get your skater projections right here at Apples & Ginos. I’ll use Nate’s skater projections in this article to walk through my drafting process (and I’ll note that Blake also has skater projections available).
Step 2: Rank The Defensemen
Once I’ve got my skater projections (adjusted for my league’s scoring format) I apply a filter for skaters who play at the defense position. The result is a ranked list of defensemen. Here’s what that looks like using Nate’s projections and a common scoring format (only the top 36 defensemen are reproduced here):
| Rank | Defenseman | Fantasy Points |
| 1 | Cale Makar | 6.01 |
| 2 | Roman Josi | 5.92 |
| 3 | John Carlson | 5.65 |
| 4 | Rasmus Dahlin | 5.41 |
| 5 | Dougie Hamilton | 5.29 |
| 6 | Kris Letang | 5.12 |
| 7 | Brandon Montour | 5.02 |
| 8 | Zach Werenski | 4.97 |
| 9 | Jakob Chychrun | 4.92 |
| 10 | Adam Fox | 4.88 |
| 11 | Erik Karlsson | 4.86 |
| 12 | Miro Heiskanen | 4.80 |
| 13 | Mikhail Sergachev | 4.77 |
| 14 | Victor Hedman | 4.67 |
| 15 | Alex Pietrangelo | 4.65 |
| 16 | Josh Morrissey | 4.59 |
| 17 | Brent Burns | 4.58 |
| 18 | Seth Jones | 4.52 |
| 19 | Evan Bouchard | 4.51 |
| 20 | Noah Dobson | 4.45 |
| 21 | Quinn Hughes | 4.42 |
| 22 | Darnell Nurse | 4.40 |
| 23 | Shea Theodore | 4.40 |
| 24 | Thomas Chabot | 4.34 |
| 25 | Mike Matheson | 4.33 |
| 26 | Devon Toews | 4.32 |
| 27 | Aaron Ekblad | 4.29 |
| 28 | Jacob Trouba | 4.25 |
| 29 | Justin Faulk | 4.25 |
| 30 | Morgan Rielly | 4.14 |
| 31 | Charlie McAvoy | 4.04 |
| 32 | Moritz Seider | 4.04 |
| 33 | Bowen Byram | 4.02 |
| 34 | Vince Dunn | 4.00 |
| 35 | Jared Spurgeon | 3.98 |
| 36 | Drew Doughty | 3.97 |
Step 3: Think About Tiers
I have a very simple way to create “tiers” of defensemen: I group them based on how many teams are in my league. For example, in a 12-team league I would put the defensemen in groups of 12:
Tier 1: 1-12
Tier 2: 13-24
Tier 3: 25-36 …
I see a couple of benefits to this approach:
- It’s easy.
- It can be used to make decisions in a draft.
I’ll pause here to consider an alternative approach: grouping defensemen based on their expected fantasy value. For example, you could say something like “Cale Makar and Roman Josi are in Tier 1”. This is not particularly useful information in my opinion. It doesn’t answer important questions like: “Should I draft one of these defensemen?”; “Should I wait and draft a defenseman from a lower tier?”; and “Which tier should I target and why?”.
In contrast, my framework can answer those questions:
Do I want a defenseman from Tier 1? Yes
Do I want at least one defenseman from Tier 2? Yes
Do I want at least one defenseman from Tier 3? Almost certainly
If I follow this process during the draft I can be reasonably confident that I’m assembling a group of defensemen who are not too far off league average. In my experience it’s often possible to focus on drafting forwards while also selecting a group of defensemen who have the potential to be a little above league average. I’ll walk through this process below.
Observations Based On Experience
I want to target forwards with my top draft picks, and in particular I want to grab elite wingers. With that in mind here’s how I typically select my defensemen.
Getting My Tier 1 Defenseman
It seems that every year there is at least one Tier 1 defenseman who is not a trendy pick in fantasy hockey. That’s who I like to target. Looking at Nate’s list you’ll see a few candidates for this season (this could vary depending on your league and personal opinions):
- Kris Letang;
- Zach Werenski; and
- Jakob Chychrun.
I generally let other people use their top picks on the most-hyped defensemen and then select one of the less trendy guys in a later round. What round will that be? It will depend entirely on your draft. You can use ADP data to guide you in making your pick but pay attention to where other defensemen are actually being selected. If they’re generally going higher than their ADP then you should assume that your target will also be selected early.
While I typically don’t draft the highest ranked defensemen I think my method for putting defensemen in tiers can still be useful for people who want to grab one of the top guys. You’ll need to make decisions about how to draft the rest of your defensemen and this framework gives you a structured way to think about that.
Getting The Rest Of My D
There are typically numerous “boring” or otherwise neglected defensemen in Tiers 2 – 3. I like to target these guys to fill out my roster. Here are some examples from Nate’s projections for the upcoming season (again, this could vary depending on your league and personal opinions):
- Alex Pietrangelo;
- Seth Jones;
- Darnell Nurse;
- Devon Toews;
- Justin Faulk; and
- Jared Spurgeon.
In my experience defensemen like this are typically still available after I’ve grabbed my top forwards. It’s not uncommon for me to fill out my defense with these Tier 2 – 3 guys. Assuming that I grabbed a Tier 1 defenseman earlier in the draft I should end up with at least an average group of defensemen relative to the other teams in my league. I could even have an above average group (for example, five defensemen who are all Tier 3 or higher). Of course, my forwards should be above average and will be the real strength of my team.
That’s it. There’s nothing fancy about this approach (other than the fancy skater projections that make it possible). Most people will look at your group of defensemen and shrug their shoulders. I take that as a compliment.
If you want to see real life examples of this drafting strategy check out my Year In Review article here at Apples & Ginos. Look for the description of my best ball drafts, especially A&G Best Ball #1.
The End Of The Article
That’s all for now. I hope you found something here that will help you win your leagues this year.
Cheers!
Mark (18 Skaters)
Apples and Ginos 