Mining the waiver wire for hidden gems is an art when it comes to fantasy sports and hockey is no different. Even with all the information we have to help us make decisions, there are always some players who fall through the cracks and end up on the “waiver” wire. Sometimes, their presence there makes absolutely no sense, leading me to wonder, “What are we doing here?”. In this article, I am going to identify 5 players who I think should be on a fantasy roster and anoint them as MUST ADD players.
Before we get started, I feel the need to define what “MUST ADD” means. It doesn’t mean you add these players at any cost; every add has to make sense for your fantasy squad. That said, these players shouldn’t be on your waiver wire.
There are 3 things I look for when potentially adding a player:
- Deployment – How much time on ice (TOI) are they getting game to game? Players need to be on the ice to accrue statistics, pure and simple. It’s not rocket science here, but as a general rule, I like to roster players who are getting top 6 minutes on a regular basis. Top 6 minutes to me means 16+ minutes a night.
- Opportunity – Are they skating on the top 2 lines? Are they playing with offensive players? Are they getting powerplay time and if so, what’s the PP% share? Deployment on the PP can overcome poor even strength deployment and is a major factor when it comes to valuing players.
- Metrics – Have a look at how many shots and chances they generate on a nightly basis. How many shot attempts are they generating? Here at Apples & Ginos, we use the following rate stats to determine this: Shots on goal per 60 minutes (SOG/60), individual Corsi For per 60 (iCF/60), and individual scoring chances for per 60 (iSCF/60).
I would generally consider about 10.0 SOG/60 to indicate a player that is putting a substantial number of pucks on net. More pucks on net = more chances to score. iCF/60 indicates how many shot attempts are directed at the net, even if they miss. This is just an extension of shots and tells us how involved the player is in the offense. iSCF/60 shows us how many scoring chances a player is getting. Scoring chances are recorded when shots come from a certain place on the ice. (The faceoff circle as opposed to the blue line for example). An iSCF/60 mark approaching or above 10 indicates that this player is driving a lot of offense for his team and has a higher probability of scoring.
There are other metrics we use as well that we call the “luck metrics”: IPP (individual points percentage) and shooting percentage. These stats can be used to see if a player is running hot and converting more than he should or if a player is due for some positive regression. For example, if a player has a shooting percentage of 40% when he usually only shoots 10%, we can safely assume that it will regress negatively. The same can be said if a player is shooting a truly low percentage but historically they score at a higher efficiency, we can likely expect that to regress positively. IPP tells us the percentage of points the players either score or assist on while on the ice. The higher the number, the better. I prioritize my player adds with these metrics in mind.
At least 2 of the 3 things I mentioned (Deployment, Opportunity and Metrics) must be met for me to have any interest.
Let’s get to BIZ! Here are the top 5 MUST ADD players rostered under 50% on Yahoo.
Bryan Rust – 50% – Rust was someone who slid down draft boards during draft season, largely due to the fact that he had lost his place on PP1 in Pittsburgh. He had already spent a large portion of last season on PP2 and with the addition of Erik Karlsson and the strong play of Rickard Rakell, it didn’t look like he would get his spot back on the top unit. However, this is still a player who is lining up with Sidney Crosby every single night at even strength and that hasn’t changed in the early going of the season. Pittsburgh as a team has limped out to a 2-4 start but Rust has been very effective in his role. He has 5 goals in 6 games, all at even strength. His numbers at 5V5 so far are right in line with career numbers:
- SOG/60 – 9.39
- iCF/60 – 19.46 (highest number of his career albeit in a small sample size)
- iSCF/60 – 13.42 (Also the highest number of his career)
Now, as of the last game, Rust has been moved up to PP1 with the big boys and Rakell has been moved to PP2. Pittsburgh’s powerplay hasn’t been converting at the rate we would like to see, but this is still a great place to be for a fantasy asset. The Penguins are number 1 in the league in Corsi For/60 (CF/60) AND in Scoring Chances For/60 (SCF/60) on the powerplay. The pucks aren’t going in currently, but the chances and shots are there. That says to me, they will likely start going in soon and Rust will be there to pick up the garbage.
Pair this with the fact that Rust is getting great deployment (ATOI 18:40), and we are looking at a powder keg situation for the top unit. The fact that this man is only 50% rostered at this point means some fantasy managers are sleeping at the wheel. He should absolutely be on a roster and he provides multi-category coverage as well. This is a player that can probably walk into 55-60 points this season with decent peripheral stats as well.
Logan Cooley – 44% – It has been a great start for this young man and he could be a legit threat to Connor Bedard in the Calder trophy race. Cooley has 5 assists in 6 games with no goals. There is lots to like about this player right off the bat. First, he is getting PP1 deployment and lots of it. He looks like a staple there and it is a great place to be currently. Arizona is cooking with a 28% shooting percentage on the powerplay, good enough for 8th in the league currently.
At even strength, Cooley has been lining up with various combinations of Jason Zucker, Matias Maccieli and Alex Kerfoot and honestly, this hasn’t been very effective. All of Cooley’s points are on the powerplay and he really hasn’t been generating anything at even strength. Right now Barrett Hayton is munching minutes on the top line and while I don’t see that changing in the near future I do believe that Cooley will get a look there at some point and he is such a dynamic player that he could really pop.
Right now the metrics are not showing what I think Cooley is capable of. He clearly needs to shoot the puck more as evidenced by a laughable 2.83 SOG/60 at all strengths. THAT SHOW AIN’T NO GOOD. This said, his TOI is strong with an average TOI of 17:39. The shots and goals will come as he gets more comfortable in this league. This is a player with high offensive acumen and was one of the best young players out there prior to season start. He’ll be good this season and should probably already be on someone’s fantasy roster. BOOK IT.
Michael Matheson – 40% – This man had a beauty of a goal the other night going end to end and showing off his powerful skating stride and deadly shot. Are you not entertained?! He should be rostered on the basis of that goal alone but for the sake of this article, we will dive in. As far as metrics go, Matheson does everything you want from your defensemen. His SOG/60 are good for 12th best in the league among defensemen, but his iCF/60 and iSCF/60 aren’t as impressive at 75th and 47th respectively.
His peripheral stats increase his overall value as well. He currently has 20 SOG, 5 Hits and 16 Blocks in just 6 games. In a category league, this man’s value is even higher. People forget that Matheson was on a 58 point pace last season before it was derailed with injuries. This is not the same player who played on the 3rd pairing in Pittsburgh. He is currently averaging a career-high 25:40 and is a top PP stud. 40% is just too low for Matheson and guaranteed, this man is better than the worst defenseman on your team. What are we doing here? Get Mike in your life and do it now!
Nick Schmaltz – 37% – What does Nick Schmaltz have to do to get some respect in fantasy circles? He has played at nearly a point per game pace for 2 straight seasons. So far this season, he has 7 points in 6 games and has been playing on the top line and powerplay all while averaging just under 21 minutes TOI. 37% rostered. Huh? I really don’t understand this one and the only reason I can think of is that he plays for a bad team in Arizona and people are biased against drafting them. Sure, he is not a great shot generator but he is an efficient shooter, especially these last 3 seasons where his shooting percentage was 18.7%, 16.7% and then 15.4% currently.
Deployment and opportunity are really what sets Schmaltz apart. We talked about Cooley earlier and his current value but if I had to choose which Coyote to pick up, I would take Schmaltz 10 out of 10 times. He has always been a high IPP guy throughout his career with numbers routinely in the 70th percentile. A consistent IPP north of 70% shows us that he drives the offense on his line and the play goes through him. This statistic as a one-off isn’t really a great way to value players but when you notice that he has been doing this for the last few seasons consistently, we can start to extrapolate the importance of this man to his team’s offense. If you look at the last 3 seasons, Schmaltz’s IPP has been consistently over 70%. His line with Barrett Hayton and Clayton Keller was one of the hottest down the stretch last season and they’ve picked up where they left off. Don’t sleep on this man any longer. PICK HIM UP.
Elvis Merzlikins – 35% – After last season’s debacle, Elvis appears to have re-entered the building. It was a season to forget for the Blue Jackets and Merzlikins in particular. They were ravaged by injuries to key players and Merzlikins had injury trouble himself as well as some personal issues that he was dealing with. Fast forward to this season and he is off to a very nice start on a team that looks much improved defensively. The additions of Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson to this team as well as a healthy Zach Werenski have solidified their top-4 and made life a little easier for Elvis. His stats on the season reflect that as he has a 2-1-1 record after 4 games and a very respectable .913 save percentage to go along with 2.69 goals against average. The other indicator of solid play is the fact that he has a plus 1.04 Goals Saved Above Average whereas last season he finished with a minus 24.66 mark (one of the worst numbers in the league). His backup this season is Spencer Martin who had a terrible season himself last year, giving me even more confidence that Elvis’s starts are secure. Merzlikins could be a true workhorse goalie this season, playing 60 plus games on a decent team. 35% is much too low for a player we could be talking about at the end of the season as a #ZeroG success story. I have him in 3 spots and I am very comfortable with it.
I am going to be pumping out a few articles for A&G in the future so keep an eye on this space. Thank you so much for reading everyone. Please reach out to me on Twitter/X @BlakeCreamerAG or hit me up in the Apples and Ginos Discord with any questions you may have. Your victories = my victories. Celebrate your day. Bye for now.
Apples and Ginos 