Today’s lesson? One in numbers from a reading teacher? And in (can’t believe I’m about to say this), this space?
Uh…ya.
Segue 101:
There’s an argument to be made that Kraftwerk is one of the most influential bands in modern music history. Their song Numbers changed things for me. Perhaps more importantly, for you too even though you probably don’t realize it…Yet.
Take Two…
Among other places, there are rumblings in Edmonton and New Jersey.
While I may not be analytical in a numbers sense, I do think pretty deeply, and if I may be so bold, analytically when it comes to fantasy hockey. And as I’ve mentioned so many times before, I rely on my numbers experts to give me guidance when it comes to my team decisions. I know it’s not my strong suit so I’m happy to let the Apples and Ginos crew do the crunching. Again, that’s not to say that I don’t think long and hard about this stuff because I do. Agonizingly so.
I’ve rostered the better Oilers for many years and it seems like we’ve been down this road before, but this year feels different. Ironically, this is the first year that I haven’t had Connor McDavid on my team but I do have Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard, and Darnell Nurse. With the high expectations surrounding this team, especially this year, something’s got to give and soon. I’ve got my trigger finger ready to pull the plug should any drastic moves be made that may render some of these players less fantasy relevant.
Regarding the NJ Devils, I mentioned at the beginning of the season that expectations appeared to be uncomfortably too high with this team and I worried that there might be too many chefs in the kitchen. So far, it appears that those concerns were and are warranted. Yes I realize that they’ve dealt with injuries to significant players on the team (Timo Meier, Jack Hughes, and Nico Hischier, all of whom I roster, btw), but there appears to be chemistry issues and those are time-consuming and extra challenging to overcome early/mid season. Adding to my consternation is the reality that these represent some of my favorite players and contemplating rash moves involving any of them goes counter to my already full complement of rashness.
What to do?
Like so much in fantasy (and life?), there’s only so much game-planning and analytics one can rely on. When everything is said and done, you still have to play the game and I’m hanging on (by a thread albeit) in the hope that in the end, my investments will produce better results.
To add salt to my mental wound and because I’m wont to overuse trite idioms, is the following business maxim I heard on The Five Hole Taxi Squad Podcast, i.e, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” which I’ve interpreted to mean something like, get comfy with ridiculousness. And by the way, if you haven’t already subscribed to The Taxi Squad podcast, you should. Very much like Apples and Ginos, the boys over there combine analytics with a healthy dose of humility and authenticity.
Anyway, and as you can probably figure out, this has been a rather disjointed beginning to the fantasy season for The Professor.
(…and call me in the morning because I wrote most of this article PRIOR to their respective last games which saw both teams awakened. I left this unchanged as a sort of microcosm for the fantasy hockey world, i.e, that things can change in the blink of an eye. And that’s one of the reasons that nothing in the fantasy world can compete with fantasy hockey. Full stop.)
Recent Moves, Spicy Trades, and Random Thoughts:
I’ve got this not so sneaky, sneaky suspicion that spicy trade is a diplomatic way of saying you messed up bro. If I’m being completely honest, now why would I do that? I’m panicking that I’ve made a terrible decision. Anyway, my thinking aka my mental gymnastics went something like this: on one of my teams, the player whose name isn’t to be mentioned just yet (see below), has been playing lights out (along with his team) and I’m still at the bottom of my league, so therefore, let’s take a swing here (amazing what a little self-delusion can do right?), hence…
Elias Petterson and Nick Schmaltz for Owen Tippet and Timo Meier: I know what you’re thinking, have you lost your mind Professor? Because I was the one trading away Petterson and Schmaltz, it seems as if I’m looking for my lost marbles. But I had to at least try to shake things up. And golly Homer, I do so like Schmaltz. With respect to Peety, he has been one of the most relevant players in all of fantasy, but…he’s center only and I thought/still think? it was a chance worth taking. I mean, what have I got to lose? Only the rest of the season… Or not?
Anyway…
Limiting my attention to only three teams this year, I’m doing very well in two of the three. It’s in the Apples and Ginos Listener League Two where I’m really struggling. This league is very competitive with extremely savvy managers and my team has underperformed all year. I’ve fallen behind and keeping in mind the Wall Street maxim mentioned above, I took a chance with one of my most valued assets in Petterson in an attempt to fortify my team’s floor. To use a soccer analogy, I’m fairly strong on the front and back end, but it’s with my middies that I’m lacking. So I looked at the numbers, and attempted to balance things out. I’m hoping that Tippett breaks out and stays out and that Timo and New Jersey get it together. They both shoot a lot (well at least Timo used to), and their projected hit and block numbers give me hope that I won’t continue to have the seller’s remorse that’s been following me like a string of garlic around my neck since I made the trade. Insert fingers crossed emoji here.
Vasy and Monty:
Both were drafted in my ten team points league but dropped early on by other managers. Andrei Vasilevskiy due to his injury and Brandon Montour because this was before our kindly commissioner added IR+ to our league settings and I’m guessing that his manager couldn’t afford the roster spot. Thank you for the suggestion Professor. Anyway, I scooped them up after they cleared waivers and placed them in those slots with the hopes of better days ahead. I used the Zero-G draft strategy in this league and have been struggling trying to secure points with my goalies. Adding Vasy, at least on paper, gives me a volume starter and alleviates the concern of having to rely on streaming goalies and agita. With respect to Montour, o.k. Brandon, you can start now. Let’s get going man. What are we doing here?
Thanks for reading and I hope this article helps.
Mike@TheFantasyHockeyProfessor
Apples and Ginos 