By Kenny
Matt Coronato, LW/RW, Calgary Flames
In his sophomore season, Matt Coronato took a nice step forward in deployment and production. In 31 games, Coronato has nine goals and assists for 18 points, seven of which were on the power play. What is encouraging specifically about Coronato’s outlook for the rest of this season and keeper and dynasty purposes is two-fold. First, he is on the first power play unit for the Flames, as he can become more of a featured offensive option with the man advantage. Secondly, his deployment next to Blake Coleman and Mikael Backlund also shows a heightened sense of trust in Coronato as a complete 200-foot player, as his offensive zone starts this season is down at 42.4 percent, meaning he is heavily being deployed in the defensive zone when he jumps onto the ice to start his shifts. Looking at his long-term ceiling, I can see Coronato being a yearly 30-goal scorer with an upside of around 65-70 points if his progression continues to trend upwards. This would be a good time to acquire Coronato, as looking at Calgary’s long-term future, they do not have a crowded forward group to challenge his top power play and top six opportunities. If you can get your hands on Coronato in one or two long-term leagues, I believe this will bring you a massive surplus of value as time goes on.
Gabriel Vilardi, C/RW, Winnipeg Jets
Gabriel Vilardi has had a strong start to his second season in Winnipeg, posting 15 goals, 17 assists, and 32 points in 37 games. Seven power play goals and 15 power play points also contribute to Vilardi’s totals, which is the biggest attraction to his long-term value. He has been practically glued on the top-line right wing spot next to Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele at even strength, along with the aforementioned top power play spot, working net-front when healthy. The biggest concern that could hold managers back is that Vilardi is a high-efficiency shooter, consistently under two shots a game, and the lack of peripherals is something to note.
However, looking at the past three seasons, he has managed a high shooting percentage, around the 18-20 percent range, albeit with a good chunk of missed games, which can be another thing to scare managers away. While I understand this line of thinking, this is also a factor to play into, and the price to acquire Vilardi may be lower than his ceiling production-wise. Also, digging into some of his advanced stats, we see his IPP is down at 54.2 percent compared to the 60 he ran last season. I watch many Jets games, and his IPP levels will always be lower than those of his linemates, Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, as he is more of a connector and a great complementary top-line winger. However, his value to the power play is indispensable, as since he arrived, Winnipeg has heavily relied on his net-front presence and skills to rack up goals and points. This also extends to even-strength play; for a more significant framed player at 6’3” and 216 pounds, Vilardi has elite poise and hand-eye coordination to make dazzling plays that lead to goals. Similar to Coronato, I can see Vilardi reaching 30 goals and 70 points for the next several years with good health, as his role is clearly defined as an essential offensive forward both at even strength and on the power play for Winnipeg, which has been one of the best in the league this season.
Dmitri Voronkov, C/LW, Columbus Blue Jackets
Dmitri Voronkov has had an impressive start to his season after missing the first nine games with an injury. In 28 games, Voronkov has produced 12 goals and 10 assists for 22 points, with only six coming from the power play. He is on the top-line left wing with Sean Monahan and Kirill Marchenko, along with a first power play unit spot for the Columbus Blue Jackets. Unlike Vilardi and Coronato, there is some good peripheral upside here, as he posted 83 hits and 52 blocks as a forward in 75 games in his rookie year last season. Despite dropping off as a massive 6’5”, 227 lbs forward, I think his contributions will be solid at worst as he continues to trim down to his ideal playing weight long-term and continues to develop. While he is riding hot right now, shooting at 21.7 percent and rocking an 11.9 five-on-five shooting percentage when he’s on the ice, this improvement is not to be dismissed.
The primary reason why I say this is that Voronkov has been continuously trusted to play in the top six this year under the new Columbus Head Coach, Dean Evason, who has a reputation for slow-playing younger players during his time in Minnesota. Voronkov’s upside seems to be a top-six contributor, who will likely be bumped off the first unit in favour of Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli sooner rather than later, in the neighbourhood of 55-60 points with peripheral contributions. While I do not see him keeping a prime power play spot to push his ceiling closer to 70 points, his frame could see him hold onto a net-front role, in which the best power plays usually have an effective option to either bang home rebounds, tip shots from the point or make plays from the goal line to other teammates. I would say that it’s a worthwhile acquisition to explore, as I believe there is always room for a contributor who has the trust of the head coach and currently has an excellent opportunity to parlay this strong start into a more solidified and confident role long-term for offensive production and fantasy upside.
Alexis Lafreniere, LW/RW, New York Rangers
After a strong start to the season, Alexis Lafreniere parlayed this into a massive extension: eight years at a 7.45 million AAV that kicks in next season. After the first 20 games or so, Lafreniere was flirting with a point per game, and this was without a regular top power play spot, a central talking point when talking about his near-future upside. While Lafreniere has maintained his top-line right-wing spot with Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck, the Rangers have utterly imploded for many public reasons. While it looks bleak in New York, this, in my opinion, creates a golden opportunity to acquire Lafreniere while their team is in a downward spiral regarding wins and losses. Lafreniere is at nine goals and 21 points in 35 games, a massive drop off to his early season pace. However, I quickly expect the Rangers as a collective to play better, which will inevitably benefit Lafreniere’s production and get back on track. Another benefit that boosts his value is that he hits at a reasonable rate, so far at 50 hits in 34 games.
Regarding his long-term ceiling production-wise, Lafreniere could push 80+ points with regular 1st power-play unit time and a permanent spot next to Panarin and Trocheck on the top line. While the Rangers forward core is a primarily aging one save for Lafreniere, guys like Gabe Perreault and a potential lottery pick, if they miss the playoffs, will help to replenish the talent around him. Also, Adam Fox is still in his prime at 26 years old, and there is enough talent here to make Lafreniere someone you should be targeting in keeper and dynasty formats, as the potential payoff could take your team to the next level.
Shane Wright, C, Seattle Kraken
Ever since falling to 4th overall in the 2022 NHL Draft, Shane Wright has received a lot of criticism and has been the focus of the spotlight on how he will eventually turn out as an NHL player. After some growing pains in his 3rd season after his draft year, there are finally some signs that Wright is growing in confidence offensively. In 34 games, Wright has seven goals and nine assists for 16 points, but even that does not tell the whole story. After starting the season with a measly two points in his first 18 games, Wright was scratched for three consecutive games before returning on November 25th against Anaheim. Two things turned around for Wright over these past 15 games. First, he was put in a prominent position on Seattle’s power play, which evenly spreads their units out in talent and time on ice. This led to Wright being able to start producing with the man advantage and regain some offensive flair in his game. Secondly, Wright was put on a line with Eeli Tolvanen and Oliver Bjorkstrand, and since that has happened, he has posted six goals and eight assists for 14 points in those 15 games, clicking at a near-point-per-game pace.
Looking at some statistics, it is clear that negative regression is bound to occur, as Wright is shooting at 21.9 percent, and Seattle is scoring at a 12.3 percent rate at five-on-five when he is on the ice, which is only really maintained by established superstars with heavy deployment and long track records. Also, Wright is only averaging one shot per game, which is not encouraging, and this will need to increase significantly even if he is a higher-efficiency shooter. With all of this, this is the stretch that Wright needed to make acquiring him a worthy and reasonable suggestion for you managers. Matty Beniers has struggled mightily to produce offensively in his third season. With Wright clearly showing that he has a release that can be used effectively on the power play and in offensive situations, I can see Wright eventually becoming the top center to be relied on when needing a goal for the Kraken, with Beniers becoming more of the reliable 200-foot center that lacks the offensive upside that Wright possesses as a goal scorer and a complete offensive player.
I hope you all enjoyed the article as always and that you have a Happy Holidays and a Happy New Year! You can find more of my personal content at Continuous Forecheck 🙂
Take Care Always,
Kenny
Apples and Ginos 