By Kenneth Guzman
Recent Trades in Dynasty Leagues and Lessons by Kenny
Hello, everyone. I hope you are doing well! It has been a while, but I am excited to bring you this new article highlighting some trades that have gone down recently in my dynasty and keeper leagues, some with a salary cap element but one with a more traditional setup in a keeper sense. This will come with the league settings, a rationale for each side from my perspective, and the verdict with some lessons on how this can apply to your own long-term leagues and what to look for and target when making trades!
Side A: Dylan Guenther
Side B: Jiri Kulich, Olen Zellweger, David Jiricek, 2025 1st round pick
League Settings: 16 Team Salary Cap Dynasty League, Points Format
Analysis: This is a massive deal, as Dylan Guenther is this trade’s most proven and appealing asset. After returning from injury, he has been red-hot with four goals and seven points in four games. With his new deal clocking in at eight years and $7,142,857 million Annual Average Value (AAV), his cost certainty is appealing as the cap spikes for the next three seasons. I expect the Guenther side to be thrilled with this acquisition long-term, as a regular 40-goal scorer with 90-point seasons should be in the cards, and having him at second-liner money for the rest of his 20s is a smart move. Even if he does not improve from his season-long paces of 32 goals and 65 points in 70 games for a few seasons, Guenther still provides immense value at both the cap hit and production he brings for goals and powerplay points.
Looking at the side that traded Guenther, the main assets here are Jiri Kulich, Olen Zellweger, and the 2025 1st rounder that should land at the back half of the top 10 for the 2025 draft class. This is also a heavily futures-based package. I believe this owner is banking on the quantity, turning into multiple quality assets to make up the difference that Guenther’s shown already in his NHL stint. Kulich has had a strong rookie season for the lowly Sabres; in the past few weeks, he has been elevated into the first-line center role next to Tage Thompson and JJ Peterka, which would bode exceptionally well for his potential ceiling as a point producer due to his lack of peripherals. After a successful stint last season, Zellweger has had a tougher adjustment this season for the Ducks, as he has been scratched on several occasions. He only posted four goals and 13 points in 41 games, so his stock definitely has gone down as the future power-play quarterback for all the promising forwards Anaheim has.
Verdict: While I see a world where Kulich and Zellweger become good NHL players and an outside chance that Jiricek becomes an impact fantasy producer with that incoming draft pick, I would give this to the side acquiring Guenther. Especially in a 16-team league, if you can trade for an elite young player with cost certainty in a salary cap league, you go for it. The worst-case scenario for the Guenther owner now is that those pieces all become impact guys, but that would still leave them with a top-line sniper as a primary fixture on a rapidly improving Utah Hockey Club. This does not mean that the Kulich/Zellweger/Jirick/2025 1st side made a bad deal, as the quantity could turn into more than enough quality for the manager long-term to make it a win-win for both sides. The general rule of thumb is that if you have a highly sought-after piece in Guenther that is super young and has an excellent pedigree. You only move off of them if you’re getting more of a sure thing back or at least two pieces that have proven more than a Kulich and Zellweger to the present day.
Side A: Matt Coronato, Justin Sourdif, 2025 3rd round pick
Side B: Dean Letourneau, Justin Poirier, 2027 1st round pick
League Settings: 24 Team Salary Cap Dynasty Points League
Analysis:
This is a personal one that I made happen a few weeks ago, and it is a good deal to analyze and learn from. First, the most proven piece in this trade is Matt Coronato, as the other pieces are still unproven prospects and assets at best. Last month, I wrote about how Coronato’s season and underlying metrics boded well for his long-term upside here. Given that Coronato has continued to play with two veterans who play in all situations, like Blake Coleman and Mikael Backlund, I foresee his production only increasing rapidly as he starts to get more exposure to offensively gifted talents like Jonathan Huberdeau, Connor Zary, and Zayne Parekh down the line. With a season-long pace of 22 goals and 47 points in 77 games, a reasonable expectation for Coronato’s upside for the next two seasons should be 30 goals and 60 to 65 points, with room for more depending on the supporting cast and his own improvements with driving play and creating more goal scoring opportunities for his teammates and himself with that highly-touted shot.
For the side that traded Coronato, the owner is taking a long-term project in Dean Letourneau and hoping he can progress similarly to a Tage Thompson several years in the future. While he has had a tough freshman year at Boston College, there is still plenty of opportunity for him to turn things around, especially at a program that has churned out quality NHL players over the past 10-15 years. Justin Poirier is a prospect known for his goal-scoring and shot, with his fall to the fifth round of the 2024 NHL entry draft primarily due to his shorter physical stature. His stock has only risen, with his production at 39 goals and 70 points in 49 QJMHL games for Baie-Comeau Drakkar, which is on pace for 53 goals and 95 points in 66 games. The 2027 1st rounder will likely be a very late one, as my team is 4th in the league, with many of the top players in their early to mid-20s. While there are some promising pieces here, the main concern from an objective lens is that both Letourneau and Poirier are trending to be players who, if they do make the NHL, will need a few years of development at the minimum to make that happen.
Verdict:
While this is a personal trade, the Coronato side comfortably got the better end of the deal by laying out both sides. The big lesson that can be taken is that when you have a young and rapidly developing NHL player in Coronato, you can still move him, but it would have to be only in two main situations. The first situation is if you are in a full contention window in whatever dynasty or keeper league you are in, and you can upgrade Coronato right now for a player at Coronato’s likely ceiling for the next two or three seasons. An example would be if you could trade Coronato and other assets for an older and more established winger like Carter Verhaeghe, who has proven to be a 40-goal and 70-point player in a great spot in Florida. The other option is if to can trade a similar player to Coronato for a package that includes some young players but has more certainty to provide you with more surplus value with the extra players and picks added.
Side A: Anthony Cirelli, 2025 3rd round pick
Side B: Marco Kasper, 2025 2nd round pick
League Settings: 12 Team Deep Keeper, No Salary Cap Points League. Keep 17 main roster players and five minor-eligible players
Analysis:
This trade was made recently in one of my more standard-sized keeper leagues. It does not have the salary cap implications of the first two trades, which makes it more intriguing to analyze. The side that acquired Anthony Cirelli publicly stated they were looking for a win-now upgrade at center, while the Marco Kasper side is firmly still rebuilding. Looking at both sides, while Cirelli has been more of a defence-first player, which hinders his fantasy upside, his partnership with Brandon Hagel at even strength has worked wonders for both parties. With 20 goals and 42 points in 53 games, that puts him on pace for a 65-point season, which would make him a solid keeper asset for the next several years, especially if you are a believer that Cirelli and Hagel can create a consistent scoring line away from Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov. While Cirelli has benefitted from a high 18.3 shooting percentage, he has scored 14.1 percent of his shots throughout his career, so the negative regression may not be as drastic. Even if he settles in as a 55-point center, give or take, with 20-25 goals, that provides plenty of value and is a prudent decision for the contending owner.
On the other hand, Marco Kasper’s acquiring side also made a wise decision, flipping a waiver wire add early in the season in Cirelli to a much younger player in Kasper. Kasper’s value has risen noticeably, as over the past few weeks before the Four Nations Break, he has been on the top-line left wing next to Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond. While he still has a lot to prove for what his long-term upside could look like, the fact that he has nine goals and 20 points in 50 games is promising. Having a player who can rotate from the minors roster on Fantrax to the main roster on off days and days where he can slot in is key to maximizing games in every matchup, and this acquisition can also become a fruitful one for this manager.
Verdict:
At first glance, I see this as an under-the-radar trade, but it is a true win-win for both sides. The manager getting Cirelli will have the more impactful player at a position of need at center for this season, guaranteed, regardless of whether he regresses back to below a 50-point pace. For the manager getting Kasper and the pick upgrade, finding a waiver wire asset and turning it into a flexible minor-eligible player down the stretch and for next year is a good piece of business, as if Kasper finds a long-term home next to Larkin and Raymond with more power-play opportunity, he could become a more valuable asset than Cirelli would ever be for the rebuilding roster.
I hope you have enjoyed this article, more to come over the next month or so, as we head into fantasy playoffs and what we could take away from this season in a longer-term lens! Feel free to check out my personal site at Continuous Forecheck, where I am set to post a deep dive on a popular player for all fantasy formats, but especially for long-term purposes 🙂
Always spread kindness and love in the world,
Kenny
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