By Kenny
Hello, everyone. I hope you are having a great day and staying positive! As fantasy leagues head into their playoffs in the next week or so, I wanted to take a fuller perspective on what happened this NHL season and some key lessons that can better inform every manager who has keeper and dynasty leagues. Even if you are a strictly redraft manager, I hope this article helps you in that aspect or even helps you pique your interest in joining a long-term league, as there are many benefits to doing so.
- Opportunity is usually more important than pure Talent
This first lesson seems like a cliche, but it is being overlooked when looking at many players who have seen a jump in their production. For example, Kirill Marchenko was either a late-round swing or a free-agency pickup for many redraft leagues. In contrast, for keeper and dynasty leagues, he was valued as a good young player but not nearly the production he has shown this season. While I don’t think anyone realistically thought he would go from 42 points in 78 games to an 83-point pace in a full 82-game slate, the opportunity was there for Marchenko. In addition to a top-six roster spot, the Jackets moved Patrik Laine, and unfortunately, Johnny Gaudreau passed away, which opened up two first-power-play unit slots for Marchenko to seize. Add on the strong emergences of Kent Johnson, Dmitri Voronkov, and Sean Monahan with the Norris-caliber season of Zach Werenski around Marchenko. This environment helped create the now fantasy-friendly Columbus roster with Dean Evason coming in. It can be more closely looked at when looking for undervalued players for trade or in startup drafts for keepers and dynasties.
Another great example is Nikolaj Ehlers, a favourite of A&G and plenty of fantasy managers. He has finally gotten a full-time spot on the first power-play unit on the top efficiency team in Winnipeg. While his average time on ice overall has not increased much, finally getting that prime opportunity on a talented roster has him on a near point-per-game pace with already 21 power play points (PPP) when he has had 19 PPP combined in the past two seasons. This is encouraging for keeper and dynasty owners of Ehlers, as it is more likely that he leaves Winnipeg for a situation that will consistently give him more opportunity at even strength while also maintaining that top power-play deployment, regardless of where he goes. Any power play production that may be reduced, as Winnipeg has performed at a league-best rate this season, will essentially be made up for the extra 2-3 minutes he can get in a different situation at even strength. If he does stay in Winnipeg, then you can still be excited, knowing that he has finally proven his worth on the top unit, and the Jets may be able to find that second-line center with Cole Perfetti and Ehlers at the winger positions.
- When in doubt, trust your gut instinct in trades
The second main lesson I’ve learned during this fantasy season is that when reviewing any trade, specifically larger ones, always trust your gut when unsure whether to accept or reject the offer. Whenever you get a trade offer from another manager, regardless of format, it’s important to consider any sustainability metrics for the significant players in the deal and their deployment and situation for fantasy purposes. For example, a significant trade went down in one of my dynasties, where David Pastrnak was traded for Nikita Kucherov. While I was not involved in the trade directly, hearing from both sides fit this lesson perfectly. The side acquiring Kucherov is one of the top contenders to win the league, and his better situation in Tampa Bay, along with the better production and contract, made sense from his perspective. The side acquiring Pastrnak still gets a phenomenal player. Still, there are more questions about his supporting cast in Boston and what the next several years could look like, as Pasta is roughly three years younger than Kucherov and has more cost certainty with his new deal starting just this season. The main reason why he decided to do the deal is multi-faceted, starting with how, despite his win-now roster, there have been injuries and underperformance that have led to one of the worst records for this season. His gut feeling at the end of the day was that despite Kucherov being the better player now, Pastrnak gives him a franchise star with a longer prime window, in theory, to bounce back next year with better performances and better injury luck.
- Don’t be afraid to look for “Hockey Trades”
The last main lesson I’ve learned from this past season is that while trading is arguably the most enjoyable aspect of dynasty and keeper leagues, you also need some restraint. An example that can be followed is when someone inquires about a player not on your trade block, that does not necessarily mean you instantly say no. But it is good to hear the other team’s offer, then take some time to look at how this benefits your roster. For example, let’s say you have a strong roster at the winger and defenceman positions, but you could use another quality center. Another manager asks if one of your better wingers, like Adrian Kempe, is available when you have other players like Valeri Nichushkin on your trade block instead. Looking at the other roster, they have plenty of quality centers but need another winger; there is a perfect opportunity to make a hockey trade. Trading your Kempe for a center like Nick Suzuki would not only put you in the same tier of players for fantasy purposes, but it would make both sides happy as the need on the roster has been filled respectively, using the surplus still strong after this hypothetical deal.
As always, I appreciate your time and hope you enjoyed this article! Watch out for more content here and on my site, Continuous Forecheck, as we head into the NHL playoffs, and the Keeper and Dynasty implications only grow from here!
Stay positive and have a smile on your face,
Kenny
Apples and Ginos 