By Kenneth Guzman
Hello everyone, I hope you all are doing well today! Today, I will highlight five players from my perspective that you should consider buying low on in your long-term leagues. Check out Nate’s video on his eight players that you should buy low on here. Without further ado, I hope you enjoy the list!
Carter Verhaeghe
The first player on this list is Carter Verhaeghe, a recent two-time Cup Champion with the Florida Panthers. His regular season production decreased notably, with only 20 goals compared to the previous two seasons of 34 and 42 goals. Is this a sign for concern, or can we largely chalk the decrease to bad shooting luck? There are several indicators that Verhaeghe is likely to produce closer to the 34 and 42 goal seasons, starting with his shooting percentage. In the past two seasons, he converted at rates of 13.1% and 15.1%, respectively, but this season, he has only converted at a low 8.3% of his shots. Suppose he rebounds to 12 percent, that immediately adds several goals back to Verhaeghe’s totals. The second primary indicator pointing to a significant rebound for Verhaeghe is the points per 60, which dropped a whole point from 3.2 to 2.1 this season. These past three seasons have displayed Verhaeghe’s ascent to the top line and top power play unit in Florida, and these two stats immediately point towards his rebound heading into 2025-2026.
You may still be curious about why Verhaeghe had a down year, and was there some slippage in his chance generation rates and totals? Fortunately, this was not the case, as many of the metrics we look for in players and how they contribute to scoring chances are areas where Verhaeghe stands out. In iSCF, Verhaeghe ranked 11th in the league, ahead of superstars like Nikita Kucherov, David Pastrnak, Matt Boldy, and Mikko Rantanen. For iHDCF, Verhaeghe was also high up there, ranked 28th in the NHL. These two underlying statistics are insightful, as examining individual scoring chances and high-danger chances generated can help further our understanding of the type of players we should be targeting, especially after Verhaeghe’s down season. I will always support having players on your roster who can consistently rack up more chances to score goals and points, which is why Verhaeghe is perhaps one of the most significant buy-lows you can make in your dynasty leagues. Expect a rebound to 35+ goals and 70+ points, with headroom for more if his power play production takes a significant leap towards the 30s.
Mikko Rantanen
The Moose is Loose in… Dallas?! It was a chaotic season for Mikko Rantanen, getting traded from Colorado to Carolina in a shocking late-January trade. Then, at the trade deadline, he gets traded again from Carolina back to Dallas, where he signs an eight-year, 12 million AAV extension to secure his long-term future. Rantanen ultimately produced 32 goals and 56 assists for 88 points in a full 82-game season across three teams, which is a notable achievement. But for Rantanen, who had 2 100+ point seasons and a 55-goal season to his credit, the ceiling can be higher. What seems to be some main factors that led to the down season for Rantanen’s standards? The first issue that arises relates to Rantanen’s shot rate dramatically decreasing to 2.6 per game this season, after averaging 3.4 and 3.5 shots per game in the past two seasons in Colorado. While this may be of long-term concern to others, I do not share that same line of thinking. Rantanen in Dallas is going to be their main triggerman on the top power play, ripping shots and opening up prime scoring opportunities for players like Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, and Jason Robertson from his customary right circle position.
The drop in shots can be partly explained by having to play for three different rosters and systems, as Rantanen took some time to adjust to how Dallas likes to play. We saw in the playoffs just how game-changing his skills are on the ice. Another concern would be that Dallas likes to roll their top nine pretty evenly, and this is a valid point that has prevented some of those aforementioned Dallas forwards from reaching a higher point ceiling. What I would push back on is that, in the long term, Dallas is inevitably going to have to play more of their top-end players, as their cap situation is slowly but surely eroding their heralded forward depth. Johnston, Hintz, Rantanen, and possibly Robertson, if he signs a long-term deal, will occupy a significant portion of Dallas’ cap space, leaving Heiskanen, Harley, and Oettinger to contend for the remaining cap space. This would help Rantanen back to playing those minutes to reach 100+ points multiple times during his Dallas tenure, along with 40+ goals, even if he’s no longer playing next to Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.
Despite his down year after four straight years of pacing for over 100 points, Rantanen still graded out as elite in the chance generation metrics. He was 17th in iSCF and 16th in iHDCF, highlighting that he should have had more chances to score, which would have helped propel him much closer to the 100-point mark. This is again a very encouraging sign, as Rantanen’s comfortable position in the top 20, despite his decline in shot rate, indicates that he remains a true superstar who can likely be acquired at the lowest value point of his career since breaking out in the 2017-2018 season.
Gabriel Landeskog
Oh, Captain, My Captain! Gabriel Landeskog, after missing 1,032 days, finally returned in Game 3 of the first-round playoff series against the Dallas Stars. He did not look like he had missed a step, scoring a goal and adding four points in five games while playing in the top six and on the first power-play unit for the Colorado Avalanche. Heading into his age-33 season, all signs point to Landeskog resuming his career as an effective hockey player who also loves to throw the body around, which is always a welcome trait for fantasy leagues. Why is he a buy-low, however, in my estimation?
The first main point I would like to highlight is that Landeskog has already been named to the Swedish Olympic Roster as one of the first six players, which adds another strong point of evidence that he’s ready to endure the grind of a full NHL season and the Olympics. Despite his long absence, the fact that he was able to thrive in a very long and physical first round against Dallas helps provide some optimism for any current and prospective Landeskog owners. Another main point that benefits Landeskog pertains to the fact that on the ice, it is clear that Colorado is ready to use him heavily in the top six next to very talented players, as he played with Brock Nelson and Valeri Nichushkin primarily, and can easily see him get good time with Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Necas as next season goes along. There will likely be many people who are skeptical of his ability to hold up over an 82-game season, which is a valid concern.
But even in a conservative projection of playing 60-65 games, it is very realistic to project 20+ goals, 45-50 points, with plenty of hit coverage, as you can likely get him at a cheap cost either trade-wise or in a startup draft. And with Colorado, Landeskog brings that physical, complex skill that frankly, they are lacking in their top six, as an Avalanche fan. This fact also gives me more confidence that he will be able to thrive and continue to make an impact as an NHL forward for the Avalanche and your fantasy rosters, if you happen to heed my advice and scoop him up in at least one or even two of your dynasty leagues.
Filip Forsberg
After a fantastic 2023-2024 season, where Filip Forsberg produced 48 goals and 46 assists for 94 points, the expectations were sky-high as the Predators added big-name veterans like Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault. While Forsberg still managed to produce 31 goals and 76 points in 82 games, this was ultimately a down season for him and the Predators as a whole. The first primary issue was his shot rates dropping back to career norms, as evidenced by the 4.2 SOG in that magical 2023-2024 season compared to 3.4 this season and 3.1 and 3.3 in 2022-2023 and 2021-2022, respectively, which better established what Forsberg’s shot volume should reasonably be expected to land at the end of each season. While this should not necessarily improve, one thing to keep in mind is that over the past two seasons, Forsberg has increased his hitting volume, accumulating 141 hits in 2023-2024 and 151 this past season, providing a robust floor despite the drop in point production.
What are some of Forsberg’s underlying metrics and chance generation stats? He grades out well in iSCF, ranking 23rd out of all skaters, and a solid but not spectacular 59th in iHDCF. While Forsberg did not have a bad season by any means, I believe there is room to grow, returning to the 40+ goal, 90-point range, with his great shot and high hit volume. As an example, in one of my recent startup leagues, Forsberg went 62nd overall, which would equate to an early 6th-round pick in 12-team dynasty leagues. He went 20th overall the previous summer, which highlights the stark contrast in how people tend to value Forsberg when starting a new league, given that he is now 30 years old.
What I would advise is attempting to send back a younger winger who may provide a similar shot and hit profile, but does not have the goalscoring or point upside of a Forsberg at this point, when looking at situations and deployment. Sending back someone like Timo Meier, who fits this bill perfectly, as New Jersey has consistently left him off the first power-play unit when everyone is healthy, and his point production leaves a lot to be desired.
As a team that is looking to contend for the next 3-4 years or so, upgrading to Forsberg can give you that extra boost towards winning that league for some of those seasons, as Nashville is likely going to see a rebound in some of their offensive stats. Don’t undervalue Forsberg too heavily, as his great fantasy floor helps increase the value that he brings to your rosters, even if there are some weeks that the point production may not be up to your expectations.
Alex Laferriere
Alex Laferriere of the Los Angeles Kings had himself an impressive sophomore season, producing 19 goals and 23 assists for 42 points in 78 games. What makes him an appealing target in an objectively crowded top nine in Los Angeles? The first important thing to note is that near the end of the season, he was part of a dynamic line with Kevin Fiala and Quinton Byfield, arguably the two highest-ceiling offensive players on the team. This line played together for 348:04 minutes, and their results were outright dominant, with 56.44% of the xGF%, 59.60% of the SCF%, and 58.62% of the HDCF%. This is a line that should stay intact to start next season, which is a favourable spot for production at even strength for Laferriere. Laferriere is also a player who is happy to throw his body around, as evidenced by his first two seasons, during which he tallied 113 hits in his rookie season and 124 this past season, respectively.
Looking at Laferriere’s chance generation metrics, we see a lot of promise as to what his future ceiling could be as he continues to progress his offensive package. He ranked 13th in both iSCF and iHDCF, which is a very surprising stat for a second-year player, being able to rank among the elite skaters of this league when focusing on how players individually cannot only produce scoring chances for their team, but also how often are they able to get to those high danger areas of the ice, which naturally will lead to more goals and points for your fantasy rosters. This is ultimately someone I want to be in on, as while he is not on the first power-play unit for Los Angeles, Anze Kopitar is heading into his age-38 season and will gradually start playing more of a middle-six role that specializes in the penalty kill and defensive situations—a unit of Quinton Byfield and Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala, Brandt Clarke, and Laferriere is a realistic long-term projection for their power play, which would make Laferriere a must-own in at least a few of your dynasty leagues.
I hope you all enjoyed it again. If you’re looking for more content, my personal dynasty website, Continuous Forecheck, will be posting more frequently very shortly!
Always be kind to each other,
Kenny
Apples and Ginos 