Hello everyone and welcome in for another article, this time looking into potential buys and sells after the fourth week of NHL action. First I want to take a second to invite you to join the Apples & Ginos Discord server where you can ask questions and chat with other like-minded fantasy managers on anything fantasy or hockey-related. With that said, let’s get into the buys and sells of the week.
Guys You Should Put on Your Watch List:
Adrian Kempe, C/LW/RW – LAK (13% owned on Yahoo)
Kempe’s shots/60 rank over the last two weeks among players averaging more than 10 minutes a game? 5th in the league. The only reason he’s not a well known name is a horrendous 5.3% shooting percentage. He’s been bumped from the top line but fared just as well on the second and maintained his role on PP1. Kempe is my #1 target for this week and if he’s not yours I’d like to know who is.
Nick Ritchie, LW – BOS (29% owned on Yahoo)
Nick Ritchie led Bruins’ forwards in 5v5 ice time vs Islanders, and seems to be maintaining his role on the Boston PP1 against all comers. He hits a bunch, he shoots a ton, and he’s going to cash in a bunch of chances playing on that top unit and on the second line with David Krejci. It seems like the fantasy community has been looking for a reason to discount Ritchie, and I’m here to tell you that while he’s getting this deployment he is going to smash. Last stat for Ritchie: over the last two weeks he’s rocking a 3.70 xGF/60 mark (39th in the league), but just a 2.42 actual GF/60 line due to a weak 6.5% on-ice shooting percentage. If you think the Bruins are going to shoot 6.5% between their second line and PP1 for the rest of the season, I’ve got some swampland in Florida I’d like to sell you.
Honourable Mentions: Ryan Getzlaf, C – ANA (9% owned) // Rickard Rakell, C/LW/RW – ANA (23% owned) // Pius Suter, C – CHI (11% owned) // Troy Terry, RW – ANA (0% owned)
Hot Streaks to Believe In:
Morgan Rielly, D – TOR
That’s 5th in the league over the past two weeks in 5v5 xGF/60 Morgan Rielly to you. That’s particularly impressive when you consider Rielly is skating 19:14 of 5v5 time a night over that span while the next closest player in the top 20 is teammate Auston Matthews at 16:37 and 3.47 xGF/60. Rielly is shooting less this season but that seems to be by design; he’s activating from the point and getting deep in the offensive zone but instead of taking weak shots from the half boards he’s taking an extra look and finding shooters in the high danger areas with his terrific passing ability. Rielly will never score 20 goals in a season again, but a 10 goal, 60-65 point pace is probable ROS.
Bryan Rust, LW/RW – PIT
Bryan Rust has taken 8, 6, and 6 shots over his last three games. It’s small wonder he has six points in those three games and ranks in the top 10 in the league in just about every advanced individual rate stat imaginable over that time period. What’s really exciting about Rust is that he’s skating 21:22 on average over the past two weeks. Rust’s solution to everyone worrying about his unsustainable 2019/20 shooting percentage was to just fire a million more shots and make up the difference with volume – I’m here for it.
Honourable Mentions: Brayden Schenn, C/RW – STL // Torey Krug, D – STL // Filip Forsberg, LW – NSH
Hot Streaks to Fade:
Jack Roslovic, C/RW – CLB
Roslovic catapulted to the forefront of waiver wire pickup radars with a torrid start to his Columbus career. The “Laine was a just a throw-in in the PLD trade” jokes were everywhere. But the emperor has no clothes: Roslovic is rocking a 33% shooting percentage over his last five games, and despite an 18:48 ATOI over that span, every indicator is that the regression bat is coming for him. One could point to the 87.5% IPP, the 1.93-to-5.10 xGF-to-GF ratio, or the 18.2% on-ice shooting percentage, but the fact is that the roof will cave in on Roslovic soon. If you can sell him high now would be a great time because by the numbers we’re looking at a 45-50ish point player who doesn’t offer anything else when the points inevitably dry up. The dagger: Michael Del Zotto has more shots, more individual chances for, and more high danger chances for than Roslovic over the past five games.
Jordan Staal, C – CAR
Well this has been fun. I hope that some of you got to ride the Staal train for a bit here, and I also hope you all have the good sense to get off at the next stop. Does anyone truly believe Jordan Staal is going to continue to keep Teuvo Teravainen off the Carolina PP1 long term? Even if he did, we’re looking at a player who has literally had half of the shots he’s taken over the past two weeks go in. Marry that outrageous stat with an 83% IPP, a 2.2 all strengths xGF/60 that is 328th in the league, and an astonishing 21.4% on-ice team shooting percentage, and you have a recipe for a nosedive.
Honourable Mentions: Tom Wilson, RW – WSH // Nicolas Beaudin, D – CHI
Slumps that Won’t Last:
Kevin Labanc, LW/RW – SJ
Labanc is continually underrated but is a fine points option in 12-team leagues and above. Labanc’s 3.66 xGF/60 over the past two weeks is good for 45th in the league but he hasn’t had the results to match with just a 2.13 actual GF/60 mark. Labanc has never been a terrific shooter but having a 3% shooting percentage with just a 50% IPP is well below where a player of his caliber should sit. Labanc is well worth a look if you need assists or power play points this week.
Timo Meier, LW/RW – SJ
Yep that’s right we’re going back to back Sharks here. Meier has been consistently providing hits and now it’s time for some of those shots to start going in. While coach Bob Boughner has held Meier’s ice time down because who wants to play your best players, Meier has been pumping out shots at an elite rate over the last five games, ranking in the top 20 league wide in shots/60 with a mere 6.7% shooting percentage to show for it. His team on-ice shooting percentage isn’t much better at 7%, so Meier is in for some positive regression and then hopefully some better deployment to go along with it.
Honourable Mentions: Anders Lee, LW – NYI // Adam Henrique, C/LW – ANA
Slumps that Will Last:
Kailer Yamamoto, RW – EDM
Yamamoto was an honourable mention in this space last week, but he has graduated to a full-fledged turd-burger at this point. This is a player with two points in his last nine games while still spending 90% of his 5v5 ice time alongside Leon Draisaitl. I’m pretty sure I could have stood in front of the net and let Draisaitl bounce a few pucks in off me in the last two weeks, and I never played AAA hockey. How bad has Yamamoto been? In the last two weeks he’s actually outperformed his xGF by almost 50%. His two points in nine games is more than what he should have scored. League-wide, he ranks 487th in shots/60 and 468th in xGF/60 over the past two weeks. I don’t know how else to put this; Yamamoto has been comically terrible and if he’s still somehow on your team he’s actively hurting it.
Max Domi, C/LW – CLB
Domi has been pretty awful so far in Columbus with just six points in 16 games. He’s submarining Oliver Bjorkstrand’s fantasy usefulness while he’s at it and that is something I can’t take lightly. Over the last two weeks, Domi ranks 187th in shots and individual scoring chances for/60, and even worse 301st in xGF/60. To add insult to injury his actual on-ice GF/60 is 3.21, meaning Columbus is substantially outperforming its expected goals for while he’s on the ice despite his best efforts to the contrary. If you just needed someone to say it, let me be the one to do so: you can cut Max Domi. There are better waiver wire pickups to be had in 16-team leagues than Max Domi, I can guarantee it.
Honourable Mentions: Travis Konecny, RW – PHI // Tim Stutzle, LW – OTT
That’s all for this one folks! Make sure you follow Apples & Ginos on Twitter and join the Apples & Ginos Discord server for more content and to ask any fantasy hockey questions you may have.
Thanks for reading, you are much appreciated!
Nate
Apples and Ginos 