Hello everyone and welcome in for another article, this time looking into potential buys and sells after the eleventh week of NHL action. First I want to take a second to invite you to join the Apples & Ginos Discord server where you can ask questions and chat with other like-minded fantasy managers on anything fantasy or hockey-related. With that said, let’s get into the buys and sells of the week.
Guys You Should Put on Your Watch List:
Rudolphs Balcers, LW – SJ (1% owned on Yahoo)
I wrote about Balcers last week so I won’t go off again, but he’s a very appealing streamer who is shooting and hitting a ton skating with very legitimate linemates in Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier who are doing similar things. On a four-game week with two off nights, you could do a lot worse than the guy who is second league-wide (to Hertl) in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 25th in individual scoring chances for per 60 minutes (iSCF/60) over his past five games while skating a healthy 15:43 a night. With it being the start of playoffs for many leagues or the last week of the regular season for others, these types of players can win you a week if you need the categories they provide.
Yegor Sharangovich, LW – NJD (2% owned on Yahoo)
I’m pretty interesting in Sharangovich for this week, a clear beneficiary of the Palmieri/Zajac trade. He’s seeing major minutes on the top line with Jack Hughes (18:26 average over his last five) and providing great shot volume (75th in shots/60 in that span). New Jersey is also running a four-game, two off night schedule this week so it should be very easy to fit Sharangovich into your lineup this week. His three-point explosion against Buffalo was followed up with another three shot, one assist effort versus Pittsburgh and he appears to be trending solidly upward.
Honourable Mentions: Alex Galchenyuk, LW – TOR (7% owned), Dylan Strome, C – CHI (11% owned), Ilya Mikheyev, LW – TOR (2% owned), Tim Stutzle, LW – OTT (20% owned), Wayne Simmonds, RW – TOR (5% owned), Joel Eriksson Ek, C – MIN (27% owned).
Hot Streaks to Believe In:
Travis Konecny, RW – PHI
It’s been a tumultuous year for Konecny, falling in and out of favour with coach Alain Vigneault faster than the obvious third wheel in a teen fiction love triangle. But right now Konecny is riding high on Vigneault’s toxic love, skating 17:52 a night and firing 11.4 shots/60 over his last five games (good for 24th in the league in that time frame). The individual points percentage (IPP) and on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%) are a bit hot at 87.5% and 12.9% respectively, but the shooting percentage (S%) is low by Konecny’s standards at 11.8%. Given his shot and chance generation profile Konecny is showing, he can give back some of those high percentages and still be a very valuable fantasy asset rest of season (ROS). He’s on a clear first line and top PP unit right now so I’m happy to ride the third wheel until it falls off again.
Mathew Barzal, C – NYI
Barzal may seem like an odd pick given he’s just got a single point in his last three games, but the advanced stats are still top notch for the Islanders top player. In his last five games he’s 5th in the league in shots/60, 1st in iSCF/60, 14th in on-ice scoring chances for/60 (SCF/60), and all the regression stats look pretty sustainable too; the 13.2% oiSH% is a bit high but the 78% IPP and 13% S% are fine. Being able to put up those rate stats while skating 19 minutes a night is impressive stuff, and I’m not betting against Barzal running this hot streak all the way through the fantasy playoffs.
Honourable Mentions: Vincent Trocheck, C – CAR, Jakob Chychrun, D – ARI, Pavel Zacha, C – NJD, Jack Hughes, C – NJD.
Hot Streaks to Fade:
Jack Roslovic, C – CLB
Roslovic finds himself back in this spot again after a six-point, three-game binge. Even extending the window back to a five game stretch, Roslovic’s numbers are extremely unsustainable: an 86% IPP, 33% S%, and 16% oiSH%. Combine that with a 264th best 5.8 shots/60, a 167th best SCF/60, and a pedestrian 15:24 of ice time a night and you have depressing cocktail that tastes like limited upside and failed dreams. Roslovic is an easy fade for me, even after the Foligno trade news.
Adam Erne, RW – DET
Erne has propelled himself into the fantasy hockey conversation with an impressive six-game point streak. Unfortunately, this has all the earmarks of a flash in the pan and no real indication that this is a sign of things to come. Erne is a 25-year-old career fourth liner getting a shot on the Red Wing PP1 alongside Dylan Larkin. Unfortunately that’s still only materialized in 15:09 of ice time over his last five games, and the points are largely due to unsustainability: an 83% IPP, 27% S%, and 17% oiSH% are all heavy indications of regression. If Erne got up into the 18 minute range on the Larkin line full time I could be interested, but it doesn’t seem like coach Jeff Blashill is interesting in breaking up that stellar Erne/Darren Helm/Luke Glendenning trio. I’m passing on Erne even off the waiver wire.
Honourable Mentions: Jesper Bratt, RW – NJD, Andre Burakovsky, RW – COL, Phil Kessel, RW – ARI, Andrew Mangiapane, LW – CGY, Jared McCann, C – PIT.
Cold Streaks that Won’t Last:
Nazem Kadri, C – COL
Kadri is a nice buy low opportunity, currently off the top PP unit in favour of Joonas Donskoi but still crushing it in all the advanced stats. Kadri is 4th in the league in shots/60 over his last five games, with a big green arrow point up over his regression stats. The oiSH% is very low at 5.9%, the IPP is average at 67%, and he’s somehow failed to score despite firing 17 shots in that span. I like Kadri to get back onto the top unit in the very near future given Donskoi’s recent pointless skid, and once that happens it should be wheels up once again for the feisty center.
Reilly Smith, RW – VGK
Reilly Smith is having a pretty horribly unlucky season despite his two goal game Friday versus Arizona. I’ve been hearing lots of Reilly Smith hate lately and obviously he hasn’t produced but on the season he has an unbelievably low 43% IPP, a sub-10% S%, and a low-ish 8.6 oiSH%. He’s still on the ice over 18 minutes a game every night, and has solid advanced stats under the radar. His 12.5 iSCF/60 over his last five games is 22nd in the league, and his 3.67 xGF/60 is 67th. This is a good player on a good team with a good playoff schedule who is snake bitten. I’d have no issues betting on Smith to pop back up and be a valuable playoff piece.
Honourable Mentions: Andrei Svechnikov, RW – CAR, Timo Meier, RW – SJS, Mark Stone, RW – VGK, Mikhail Sergachev, D – TB, Samuel Girard, D – COL, Keith Yandle, D – FLA.
Cold Streaks that Will Last:
Joonas Donskoi, LW – COL
I have to take an L on Donskoi after putting him in Hot Streaks to Believe In last week. Donskoi’s shot volume evaporated as soon as I did so and he’s now pointless in five straight. I expect him to be bumped off the top PP unit in short order in favour of the aforementioned Kadri, at which point his fantasy relevance will be all but destroyed. Donskoi’s xGF/60 over the past five games is still 16th in the league at 4.55, but the ice time is in steady decline and he’s gone from top of the charts to 234th in individual chances for/60 in his last five. If you haven’t cut bait already it’s beyond time.
Denis Gurianov, RW – DAL
Alright, I’m done with Gurianov. Thought he was great, thought he was bad, thought he was figuring it out, now he’s bad again. Of late he’s seeing 13:12 of ice a night, shooting just 5.5 times/60, and his 3.6 iSCF/60 is 338th in the league. With Jason Robertson overtaking him in every offensive opportunity including top power play, Gurianov’s fantasy relevance is in the coffin and I’m putting the nails in. We’ll re-address him in the offseason but I can’t be hoping for him to figure it out with playoffs at my doorstep.
Zach Werenski, D – CLB
Too soon? Yeah, probably too soon. My bad.
Honourable Mentions: Mats Zuccarello, RW – MIN, Filip Hronek, D – DET, Matt Dumba, D – MIN, Patrik Laine, LW – CLB.
That’s all for this one folks! Make sure you follow Apples & Ginos on Twitter or join the Apples & Ginos Discord server for more content and to ask any fantasy hockey questions you may have.
Thanks for reading, you are appreciated!
Nate
Advanced stats credit: Natural Stat Trick
Title photo credit: Getty Images
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