Hello everyone and welcome in for another article. This is the twelfth installment of a weekly article I’ll be writing all season long in which I’ll deep dive some hot and cold players and determine if they’re worth trying to acquire or sell off. Before we dive in, be sure to check out the Apples & Ginos community on Discord and the Apples & Ginos Patreon for even more content including a weekly waiver wire article detailing all the best streamers and pick ups for the upcoming week. I’m in the Discord every day and would be more than happy to answer any questions you have about Cale Makar, Zeus, or any other deities that us mere mortals can only gape at in complete shock and awe. Let’s get it!
Too Hot to Touch
Alex Kerfoot, LW – TOR
Kerfoot has exploded of late, dropping two goals and nine points in his last five games. However he’s somehow done that despite taking more than one shot in a game only once (and that single game was two shots). He hasn’t exceeded 5 individual Corsi For (iCF) chances in any game this entire season and hasn’t generated more than 3 individual scoring chances for (iSCF) since November 8th. Suffice it to say that Kerfoot has gotten more than his fair share of puck luck of late and isn’t typically a strong offensive threat. That being said, Kerfoot has seemingly solidified his role on the Tavares/Nylander line and the Leafs’ PP2 unit which has led to an extra minute of ice time per game this season. Kerfoot remains for me a lower-end streaming play rest-of-season (ROS).
Tanner Jeannot, LW – NSH
Jeannot falls into a category similar to Kerfoot for me. The nice part of rostering Jeannot is that the hits are guaranteed and they are borderline elite; Jeannot is averaging 3.2 hits per game this season. Jeannot’s 23 points in 38 games and 12 in his last 13 have come as a pleasant surprise to fantasy managers. With Filip Forsberg on the COVID list of late, Jeannot has held down a spot on the Nashville top line and benefited significantly. Unfortunately, even the season-long 50-point pace looks pretty unsustainable for Jeannot, who is sporting the “mark of regression trifecta”: an inflated 82% individual points percentage (IPP), an eyebrow-raising 20.7% shooting percentage (S%), and a bloated 12.2% on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%). I’d wager Jeannot is closer to a 30-point pace ROS than a 50-point pace.
Taylor Hall, LW – BOS // Tyler Bertuzzi, LW – DET // Alex Killorn, LW – TBL // Seth Jarvis, RW – CAR // Anton Lundell, C – FLA // Jason Robertson, LW – DAL // Jordan Kyrou, RW – STL
The Right Amount of Hot
Cale Makar, D – COL
I realize you don’t need me to tell you that Cale Makar is good at hockey, but I called my shot on Makar before the season and if we don’t take a minute here or there to enjoy the good things in life it just makes this game so much less fun! Makar has 34 points in 29 games this season, a 96-point pace. I’ll be the first to admit that his 45-goal pace won’t sustain; his 19.3% S% after seasons of 9.9% and 7.7% is obviously far too high. But Makar is taking an additional shot/60 minutes of ice this year, and while the 14% oiSH% is likely to come down closer to his 11.8% career average, his IPP is actually slightly lower than either of his first two seasons in the league. Makar’s iCF/60 has climbed to lag only Dougie Hamilton and Roman Josi, and considering that he’s always been a better shooter in terms of percentages than either of those two, it’s fair to label Makar the premier goal-scoring defenseman in the league even after the regression hits. Makar is absolutely a point-per-game defenseman and deserves all of the accolades he is currently receiving.
Jared McCann, C – SEA
McCann has wildly exceeded my expectations this season, registering 15 goals in 31 games despite receiving little support from his teammates. McCann has registered a linear improvement in his shots/60 rate in five straight seasons and his iSCF/60 has jumped significantly this season. McCann’s season average is just 15:45 of ice time, but he hasn’t been below that mark since Dec 9th and has laid claim to the top line and top power play in Seattle. In his last five games he has three goals and three assists, punctuated by a Mackinnon-esque 8shot/13iCF/9iSCF effort against the Avalanche on Monday night. Those totals are not something a player can luck into – McCann has taken a legitimate step this season and I expect continued 17+ minute deployment to counterbalance the 77% IPP and 17.9% S% he has on the season.
David Pastrnak, RW – BOS // Nathan Mackinnon, C – COL // Brad Marchand, LW – BOS // Cam Atkinson, RW – PHI // Viktor Arvidsson, RW – LAK // Roman Josi, D – NSH // Andrei Svechnikov, LW – CAR
Colder than Ice
Tyson Barrie, D – EDM
It’s hard to make any pronouncements about the Oilers with all the postponements they’ve had and with three of their next four games postponed yet again. It’s hard to continue to roster Barrie when he’s cold like this as he doesn’t put up much of anything in the peripheral department. Unfortunately I think you have to continue to hold Barrie; while he may not have that 70-point ceiling many (including me) envisioned for him riding shotgun with McDavid and Draisaitl, Barrie is still attached to that explosive Edmonton power play and is certain to see points come his way in the back half of the season. Keep in mind as well that Edmonton will need to make up a lot of games in the back half of the NHL season and that could lead to more games and more production from Barrie than you’ve been able to get thus far.
Elias Lindholm, C – CGY
This one has been brewing for a bit now, as Lindholm has a mere two points in his last seven games. Outside of a single 6 iSCF game, Lindholm hasn’t generated more than two individual scoring chances for in a game since Christmas. That’s concerning to me, and while it hasn’t affected his deployment, the possibility of a nagging injury or something else affecting Lindholm’s on-ice product has to be considered at least. Lindholm could be a player you can trade away for great value and simply avoid this cold streak; I’m at least going to send out a proposal or two where I have him.
Zach Hyman, LW – EDM // Kirby Dach, C – CHI // Darnell Nurse, D – EDM // Matt Dumba, D – MIN // Lucas Raymond, RW – DET
Frozen but Thawing
Cole Caufield, RW – MTL
Let’s be clear about what I’m saying by putting Caufield here. I’m not saying to go out and add or acquire him. He’s still on the Montreal third line with the likes of Artturi Lehkonen and Ryan Poehling. But despite the lineup position, Caufield has continued to generate shots, firing at least three shots in each of his last nine except one. I feel reasonably confident that Caufield can force his way back up the Montreal lineup soon and once he gets a couple of breaks and pucks start going in, they might never stop. Caufield is as highly-touted a prospect as they get, a pre-season Calder favourite that I’d entertain adding as soon as word comes that he’s been promoted back to the Suzuki line.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, C – WPG
Dubois has fallen off the radar for some fantasy managers by scoring a single point in his last six games. Winnipeg postponing a lot of games in this stretch has hurt even more, and now could be a good time to cozy up to the Dubois manager in your league and find out what the asking price is. On the season Dubois has blown all of his advanced stat career averages out of the water, firing more shots from more dangerous spots with better linemates than he’s ever had before. He’s dominating play when on the ice with a 59% Corsi For %, and his 9.2% oiSH% suggest there could be even more to come for Dubois. PLD is a big time trade target for me right now as Winnipeg starts playing games again.
Jesse Puljujarvi, RW – EDM // Robby Fabbri, C – DET // Jonathan Drouin, LW – MTL // Eeli Tolvanen, RW – NSH // Nils Hoglander, LW – VAN // Alex Pietrangelo, D – VGK // Elias Petterson, C – VAN
That’s all for this one folks, I hope you had as much fun reading it as I had writing it! Make sure you follow Apples & Ginos on Twitter and join the Apples & Ginos Discord server for more content and to ask any fantasy hockey questions you may have. If you want to learn more about any of the advanced stats I mentioned in this article, be sure to check out my article on applying advanced stats to fantasy hockey, or check out Natural Stat Trick’s advanced stats glossary.
Thanks for reading, you are appreciated!
Nate
Soundtrack to my writing: Dear Paranoia, Sincerely, Me by We Three and Living Proof by State Champs
Advanced stats credit: Natural Stat Trick
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