Hello everyone and welcome in for another article. This is the thirteenth installment of a weekly article I’ve been writing all season long in which I deep dive some hot and cold players and determine if they’re worth trying to acquire or sell off. Before we dive in, be sure to check out the Apples & Ginos community on Discord and the Apples & Ginos Patreon for even more content including a weekly waiver wire article detailing all the best streamers and pick ups for the upcoming week. I’m in the Discord every day and would be more than happy to answer any questions you have about Alex Killorn, Anthony Duclair, or any other players getting carried by their linemates currently. Let’s get it!
Too Hot to Touch
Alex Killorn, LW – TBL
Killorn is having a spectacular season with 37 points in 41 games thus far, a 74-point pace. But everything about Killorn’s statistical profile screams impending regression. On the season, Killorn has a 16.9% shooting percentage (S%) which would be the second highest mark of his career (usually shoots in the 10-12% range) to go with an outlandish 14.5% on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%) which means Tampa has scored at a ridiculously efficient rate while he’s been on the ice. Killorn has a 61% individual points percentage (IPP) which is in line with his career averages, but while Killorn’s minutes have risen this year, his shot rates have fallen off. In his last five games Killorn is 482nd in shots/60 and 366th in the league in individual scoring chances for/60 (iSCF/60) but is still converting 20% of his shots to go with a hilarious 22.2% oiSH%. This is a player who has some severe regression coming his way.
Anthony Duclair, RW – FLA
I’m aware that I’m taking a bit of a risk in writing about a Florida player when the Panthers will play as I write (Thursday evening). And Duclair is in a prime spot playing alongside the similarly red-hot Jonathan Huberdeau and Sam Bennett as well as the Panthers’ PP1 unit. But Duclair is far outpacing his individual contributions of late. In his last five games, Duclair ranks 209th in the league in shots/60 and sports a 33% S% to go with a 28.3% oiSH%. Duclair will certainly be valuable for fantasy as long as he’s in these situations, but this is a potential trade away spot for an over performing player.
Mats Zuccarello, RW – MIN // Steven Stamkos, RW – TBL // Ivan Barbashev, LW – STL // Michael Bunting, LW – TOR // Evgeny Kuznetsov, C – WSH // Adam Fox, D – NYR // Riley Stillman, D – CHI //
The Right Amount of Hot
Jeff Skinner, RW – BUF
Skinner being just 13% rostered in Yahoo leagues is a crime. Skinner has registered five straight games with 6 or more individual Corsi For chances, ranking 11th in the league in shots/60 and 26th in iSCF/60 during that stretch. Skinner is still a legitimate sniper in the league and the emergence of Tage Thompson has given him a talented center he hasn’t had the likes of since former coach Ralph Krueger inexplicably booted Skinner off Jack Eichel’s line immediately following a 40 goal campaign on Eichel’s wing. Skinner is on a 30-goal pace this season and it’s entirely sustainable.
Alex Formenton, LW – OTT
Formenton might be taking a step here. Formenton has climbed the Ottawa lineup to hold down PP2 and second line duties and has started to thrive of late with eight points in his last six games. Formenton isn’t replacing Brady Tkachuk on the top line anytime soon, but in his last five games he ranks 53rd in shots/60 and 47th in iSCF/60. Formenton is a dynasty target for me whose numbers will surely improve as the young Senators grow together. His eye-popping speed is his greatest asset, and as he learns how to best employ that skill his production should improve and become more consistent as well.
Sam Reinhart, RW – FLA // Travis Konecny, RW – PHI // Matthew Tkachuk, RW – CGY // Timo Meier, RW – SJS // David Pastrnak, RW – BOS // Sam Bennett, C – FLA // Roman Josi, D – NSH // Kris Letang, D – PIT //
Colder than Ice
Evan Rodrigues, LW – PIT
We just talked about Rodrigues on the midweek podcast episode and I said that I wanted to see more of how Pittsburgh deploys their top nine with everyone healthy before dropping Rodrigues. The early returns look pretty bad. Rodrigues played 14:07 in the first game with the top nine healthy and despite Jason Zucker going down to injury, Rodrigues remained on the third line Thursday evening and saw just 10:57 of ice registering a pair of shots. Pittsburgh plays again Friday evening and I’m holding Rodrigues through that game, but if he’s a non-factor once again I’ll probably be forced to drop him in several leagues. I still believe the talent is there for Rodrigues, but no one can truly impact your fantasy rosters skating less than 11 minutes in a game.
Andrew Mangiapane, LW – CGY
Mangiapane has fallen on some tough luck after a meteoric rise to fantasy relevance in the early part of the season. Mangiapane has just a single goal and two points in his last ten games, and his shot and chance for rates have dipped from their early season highs. He’s certainly better than his recent stretch would indicate, but it’s likely that from this point onwards we will see Mangiapane for what he is: a talented player outside of the top line and top power play on a very top heavy Calgary team. I’d project Mangiapane for a 45-50 point pace ROS, which is still playable in some formats but a far cry from his hot start.
Logan Couture, C – SJS // Yanni Gourde, C – SEA // Eeli Tolvanen, RW – NSH // James van Riemsdyk, LW – PHI // Tyson Barrie, D – EDM // Evan Bouchard, D – EDM // Miro Heiskanen, D – DAL //
Frozen but Thawing
Zach Werenski, D – CBJ
Werenski, like many of the Blue Jackets, has fallen on some tough times of late with regards to scoring. He has just a single assist in his last five games, but it’s not for a lack of trying. Werenski is skating 25:23 a night, ranks 40th among defensemen in CF/60 and is getting pucks to the net, (13th in shots/60 despite that high level of usage). Werenski is having the finest season of his career in terms of his advanced rate stats and averaging an extra 2 minutes per game to boot. His current IPP and S% would both be the lowest marks of his career, and given how much Werenski is actually contributing towards shot attempts I can’t fathom those percentages continuing to underperform much longer. Werenski is a strong buy for me.
Noah Dobson, D – NYI
Dobson has been a favourite of mine all season long and I put him here to reinforce your confidence in holding him despite his current four-game pointless streak. Dobson fired seven shots and registered 13 individual Corsi For in his last outing and hasn’t put up less than 4 iCF in his last five games, ranking fifth among NHL defensemen during that span despite skating a very healthy 23:54 a night. Dobson seems to have earned the trust of coach Barry Trotz, and with the Islanders about to make up a metric ton of games in the coming weeks Dobson is a very attractive option to at least hold through what would have been the Olympic break.
Mikael Granlund, C – NSH // Oliver Wahlstrom, RW – NYI // Noah Gregor, RW – SJS // Darnell Nurse, D – EDM // Shayne Gostisbehere, D – ARI // John Klingberg, D – DAL //
That’s all for this one folks, I hope you had as much fun reading it as I had writing it! Make sure you follow Apples & Ginos on Twitter and join the Apples & Ginos Discord server for more content and to ask any fantasy hockey questions you may have. If you want to learn more about any of the advanced stats I mentioned in this article, be sure to check out my article on applying advanced stats to fantasy hockey, or check out Natural Stat Trick’s advanced stats glossary.
Thanks for reading, you are appreciated!
Soundtrack to my writing: A Lesson in Romantics by Mayday Parade & Screen Violence by CHVRCHES
Advanced stats credit: Natural Stat Trick