The Truth #7

Hello everyone and welcome in for another article. This is the seventh instalment of a weekly article I’ll be writing all season long in which I try to determine the truth about puzzling players. I pull suggestions for which players to write about for these articles from the Apples & Ginos community on Discord and the Apples & Ginos Patreon members. Be sure you check out those spots to catch up with me and I would be more than happy to answer any questions you have about Vincent Trocheck, Vincent Trocheck, or Vincent Trocheck. I get a lot of questions about Vincent Trocheck. Let’s get it!

Vincent Trocheck, C – NYR

Vincent Trocheck Player Card – via @TJStats

Trocheck has had a very up and down season so far, starting out with his tail on fire and then only scoring points in four of his last seventeen games (no, seriously). Trocheck’s last three games before Monday’s game against the New Jersey Devils were very uninspired, with just five shots and four individual scoring chances for (iSCF) between them. On the season, Trocheck still looks like he’s been generally unlucky. You could see a boost in the individual points percentage (IPP), shooting percentage (S%), and on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%) all coming based on his career numbers. Unfortunately now we have to question Trocheck’s deployment as he’s been dropped to the third line and Filip Chytil has been elevated in his spot. My thesis on Trocheck is pretty simple: he was paid a lot of money to be Artemi Panarin’s center and he will play the vast majority of his games there. The Rangers as a team have been scuffling of late and Trocheck is not immune to that. On the season, I still view Trocheck as a 65-70 point pace player and I’d be willing to “buy low” on him if his current manager has had enough.

Trevor Moore, RW – LAK

Trevor Moore Player Card – via @TJStats

Moore has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy managers who picked him up this season, registering 16 points in 24 games so far. Moore took a huge step as a consistent performer last year, cementing his spot on the Kings’ second line. This year, he’s maintained the pace, lending even more credence to the thought that he can keep this 55 point pace up over the course of the full season. Moore’s last five games haven’t been much to write home about with just a single goal to show for his sixteen shots, but as long as he’s firing three shots every game I’m not going to be too concerned about his long term prospects. Moore is a terrific streaming option in weeks that Los Angeles has a good schedule, and in deeper formats he is a viable hold given his consistent usage and role.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau, C – NYI

Jean-Gabriel Pageau Player Card – via @TJStats

Pageau is a tough nut to crack, scoring three goals in his last five game but juxtaposing two five-shot games with three one-shot games in that stretch. His feast-or-famine point-scoring nature makes him a difficult study for us as managers. The bonus with JGP is that he’s a consistent hitter, giving him bangers cats value even when he’s not producing points. At the same time, we need to be realistic with our expectations here: Pageau has never scored more than 43 points in a season before and a 50-point season should be considered a win. If that’s below the line of demarcation in your league then you can safely stream Pageau out for the next player with a great schedule. Pageau’s on-ice context has improved with the Islanders’ coaching change, but there’s nothing in his individual numbers that suggests he’s taking another step at age 30.

Drew Doughty, D – LAK

Drew Doughty Player Card – via @TJStats

Doughty has been an unmitigated disappointment this season with just 12 points in 24 games. Doughty is still seeing his customary 26 minutes a game, but his shot rates have dipped significantly thus far and his on-ice numbers have taken a hit as well. It’s not all doom and gloom with Doughty however as he should see a significant bounceback in his S% and lesser positive regressions in IPP and oiSH% that should see him return to a 50-55 point pace at minimum. But there is certainly concern that Doughty’s perceived ceiling as a 60-point defenseman may not be in the cards this season unless something changes in the near future. I tend to think that there’s still some hope for that to happen, but unfortunately that’s all it is at this point: hope.

Filip Hronek, D – DET

Filip Hronek Player Card – via @TJStats

Ah Filip Hronek, he of the 74 point pace. I talked about Hronek a fair bit on the last episode of the Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey Podcast, noting that Hronek has sustained a high IPP in the past and therefore it’s not unreasonable to assume that he could be in line for a career year as Detroit has assembled at least an NHL-caliber group of forwards this season. Hronek has also improved his shot rates thus far, giving him even more of a floor for point production. But I do have to note the sky-high 13% S% and 14.7% oiSH% here are driving a huge portion of Hronek’s early production. Regress those two marks to more sustainable levels and I feel Hronek should settle in around the 45-50 point mark. I do think Hronek is a season-long hold, but if you can find someone enamoured with Hronek’s recent point totals you can definitely sell high now as well.

That’s all for this one folks, I hope you had as much fun reading it as I had writing it! Make sure you follow Apples & Ginos on Twitter and join the Apples & Ginos Discord server for more content and to ask any fantasy hockey questions you may have.

Much love,


Published by Apples & Ginos

Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey Advice

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