Potential IPP Rebounds

Mark Barbour (@18sktrs, 18skaters.com)

In this article I’m going to look at skaters who have a high on-ice goals rate with a low individual points percentage (or “IPP”). In other words, I’m looking for skaters who were on the ice when lots of goals were scored but they received a point on a small percentage of those goals. The idea is to identify skaters who could increase their scoring in the future with an “IPP rebound”.

Skaters With High oiGoals/60 + Low IPP (All Strengths)

A couple of preliminary comments about the data used in the plot below: 1) the data were pulled from the last 20 team games for each skater and include stats for all game states; 2) the data were filtered to include only skaters who played in at least 13 of their team’s last 20 games; and 3) the data were filtered to include only skaters who played at the forward positions.

The plot shows 8 skaters who have an on-ice goals/60 rate above 4.0 and an IPP below 50%. The colour of each skater’s dot provides information about his on-ice shooting percentage. A blue dot represents a low on-ice shooting percentage relative to the other skaters in the plot while an orange dot shows a high on-ice shooting percentage. So what does all that mean? The most interesting skaters probably have a blue/purple dot near the top of the plot.

Honestly, none of these skaters scream “must add” but a few of them are worth considering for your fantasy hockey team.

  • I think Seth Jarvis is the most interesting skater on this list. Jarvis had excellent goal scoring metrics over his last 20 games but he didn’t get many assists in that span of games (with zero secondary assists) and his power play production also dipped. We could see an increase in point production from Jarvis going forward. He’s on a roster in only 33% of Yahoo leagues so there’s a good chance he’s a free agent in your league.
  • Sam Bennett was injured in the middle of February but he still made it through the games played filter for this plot. Before his injury Bennett was recording assists at less than his typical rate and that’s the main reason his IPP was down. He’s currently day-to-day but should return to the lineup soon, so now could be a good time to add him if he’s available as a free agent or if your league’s trade deadline has not passed. Note that Florida has a bad schedule in Week 22 but has a good schedule in Weeks 23 and 24. You’ll need to figure out what that means for the playoffs in your league, but Bennett could potentially be a useful skater in the 2nd and 3rd round of your playoffs.
  • Tyler Bertuzzi has been a tough skater to have on your fantasy hockey team this year. He’s missed time with injuries and hasn’t performed very well when on the ice. His goal scoring was down in the last 20 games, but so were his underlying goal scoring metrics. There’s also some uncertainty about where Bertuzzi will be playing hockey after the trade deadline. Maybe there’s some upside here, but maybe not. He’s on a roster in only 31% of Yahoo leagues so he could be available if you want to take a shot on him.
  • The final skater I’ll mention is Barrett Hayton. He’s interesting because he has actually been producing better than ever. Could there be room for even more growth? His IPP over the last 20 games was only 39.29. On the other hand, Hayton has never maintained a high IPP and his on-ice shooting percentage over the last 20 games approached 13% (which is uncomfortably high). He’s on a roster in only 7% of Yahoo leagues so he’s widely available.

The End Of The Article

That’s all for this week. I’ll be back here next week with another original data-driven article. In the meantime you can find my daily posts on 18skaters.com. Consider following me on Twitter at @18sktrs if you want to be notified about the content I’m creating here, there, and anywhere.


Mark (18 Skaters)

The Data

The data for this article were pulled from Natural Stat Trick and include games played on or before 2023-02-28.

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