Hello everyone and welcome in for another article. This is the twenty-second instalment of a weekly article I’ve been writing all season long in which I try to determine the truth about puzzling players. I pull suggestions for which players to write about for these articles from the Apples & Ginos community on Discord and the Apples & Ginos Patreon members. Be sure you check out those spots to catch up with me and I would be more than happy to answer any questions you have about Evan Bouchard, Kyle Connor, or any other elite chance generators. Let’s get it!
Evan Bouchard, D – EDM
Let’s get one thing out of the way early: Evan Bouchard is a top 20 and arguably top 10 defenseman in the league in terms of generating individual offense. Here’s a quick rundown of the top 10 defensemen by individual Corsi For per 60 (iCF/60) who have averaged at least 15 minutes a night and skated a minimum of 200 minutes this year:
1 Josi // 2 Hamilton // 3 Dobson // 4 Carlson // 5 Burns // 6 Chychrun // 7 Bouchard // 8 Makar // 9 Werenski // 10 Karlsson
Can someone please tell me if this is a list of good fantasy defensemen or not please?
As long as Evan Bouchard is on PP1 in Edmonton and Connor McDavid exists, Bouchard is an untouchable fantasy asset. End of story.
Kyle Connor, LW – WPG
After last year’s 93-point campaign, fantasy managers can be forgiven if they’re a little disappointed with Connor’s 31-goal, 84 point pace this year. Of more concern is Connor’s five game pointless streak in which he’s exceeded two shots on goal only once. With Winnipeg only playing one off night and six total games between this week and next, considering a previously unfathomable Kyle Connor drop is gaining some credence.
Certainly I would be the last to tell you you can’t drop someone who’s ice cold in the fantasy playoffs, but Connor did post 5 individual scoring chances for (iSCF) in Sunday’s game against the Blues. I find it hard to believe that most teams don’t have a player with a similarly bad playoff schedule with less potential to pop off in the next game for a hat trick; unless your roster is truly stacked I can’t sign off on a Connor drop just yet.
Bo Horvat, C – NYI
Horvat’s season has taken an abrupt left turn since joining the Islanders, with his counting stats disappearing right about the time Mathew Barzal was injured. Horvat has a single assist to show for his last eight outings, easily the longest stretch of futility he’s endured this season. It felt inevitable that the regression police would come knocking for Horvat at some point this season, as he had run a 21.7% shooting percentage in 49 games for the Canucks before his trade versus a previous career-high of 15.9% set the year prior.
Horvat’s game log doesn’t look terrible, as he’s registered at least two shots and averaged 3.5 iSCF per game during this eight game cold streak while averaging well over 20 minutes a night. I have Horvat on a playoff team myself, and I’ve determined I’m going to hold him and let go some lesser names on hotter streaks in T.J. Oshie and Josh Anderson. I feel Horvat will break through eventually and even if he’s not scoring at a 40 goal rate, he should still be well above replacement level judging by the underlying stats. One other point with Horvat: the Islanders open next week with two off nights, making their players that extra bit desirable.
Jeff Skinner, LW – BUF
Skinner has been an unmitigated star for much of this season, already setting a career-high with 67 points in 66 games. Unfortunately for his managers, Skinner’s production has dried up with zero points in three games. Mid-season this might not be cause for concern, but when we’re in playoffs cold streaks become season-enders all too quickly. I’m not too worried about the performance level as Skinner has taken 8 shots in those three games with 9 iSCF, but the ice time trending down from 19:16 to 16:30 to 14:46 is concerning.
In Sunday’s game against Boston, Buffalo was completely blown out but it’s not a great look that Skinner can get underutilized in games like that. Luckily the Sabres have gone right back to Skinner on the top line with Tage Thompson in practice on Monday. Buffalo has a good-not-great schedule this week and next so if Skinner isn’t cracking your starting lineup much I won’t fault you for looking at streaming options that will, but I do think Skinner’s production will be just fine from here on out.
Tristan Jarry, G – PIT
Jarry is coming off a week from hell, allowing 11 goals on 58 shots for a hideous .810 save percentage. The Penguins desperately need strong goaltending as they now sit a point behind Florida for the final wild card spot after Monday’s games. The good news is that Jarry was improved in Monday’s loss to the Senators, allowing two goals on 21 shots. Jarry is a lock to get at least one more start this week as the Penguins play a midweek back to back Wednesday/Thursday to go with a potential third outing for Jarry on Saturday against Washington.
I have Jarry in a points league and I’m continuing to hold him as a volume play there since it’s not worth using the add for me currently as it’s very difficult to stream skaters effectively this week because of the league’s schedule. In categories leagues it’s much more difficult to make this call but I would continue to take it game by game as Jarry’s volume alone makes him pretty useful as long as he can avoid truly catastrophic starts from here on out.
That’s all for this one folks, I hope you had as much fun reading it as I had writing it! Make sure you follow Apples & Ginos on Twitter and join the Apples & Ginos Discord server for more content and to ask any fantasy hockey questions you may have.
Much love,
Nate
Apples and Ginos 