By Kenny
Jack Eichel:
Starting with a very hot take, Jack Eichel had a fantastic season with 94 points in 77 games. If he played all 82 games, he would be on pace for exactly 100 points. While Eichel is a great player for fantasy purposes, this may be the time to sell for a package that positions you for the better long-term. A few warning signs suggest Eichel’s production this season was slightly over his baseline expectations. First, while Eichel had 66 assists this regular season, a staggering 39 of those were secondary assists for a percentage of 59.1. The previous two seasons in Vegas, his percentages held steady at around 43, which would immediately drop his assist totals down several notches. It’s essential to look at where Eichel’s career trends have been since joining Vegas. I believe the secondary assist percentage will be closer to 43 percent next season than the 59 percent he managed this year, which helped fuel him to a career-best year, which would shave off 11 from the 66 apples immediately.
The second warning sign is that Eichel’s shot volume dropped tremendously from 4.4 SOG per game last season to a good, but not elite, 3 SOG per game. This removes much of Eichel’s floor, as he clocked in at 3.3 SOG per game in his first full season in Vegas. This immediately raises the concern and likelihood that the 4.4 SOG per game season in 2023-2024 was the outlier. With the declining shot rates and likely significant drop in his secondary assist percentage, this is an excellent opportunity to sell for likely two great players that improve your team. For example, if you can sell Eichel for a package including a younger and similar upside center like Wyatt Johnston and a young winger or defenceman like Mackie Samoskevich, that would be a perfect template. Not only do you get younger, but you also get two assets that are already producing well and have a good amount of upside and growth left in their fantasy profiles.
Morgan Geekie:
Morgan Geekie, this season’s surprise 30-goal scorer, took advantage of his significant deployment with a depleted Boston roster to post 33 goals, 24 assists, and 57 points in 77 games. While he was a great value to any dynasty and keeper manager who likely was able to pick him up for free in more standard-sized leagues, this is the perfect opportunity to sell now. The first red flag for Geekie is that his 33 goals were fueled by a 21.9 shooting percentage, when his previous two seasons were down at 13.1 and 11.1, respectively. A select few players can maintain a shooting percentage around 20 percent, such as Mark Scheifele, Brayden Point, and Leon Draisaitl. Still, those players are established top-line forwards who have done it for several seasons. It would be irresponsible to expect Geekie to shoot at nearly the same efficiency as he did this season for next year.
Another potential issue for Geekie is that he is a pending Unrestricted Free Agent. If he leaves Boston, there is a reasonable probability he will return to a complementary middle-six piece for that roster. If he stays in Boston, he can retain his top-line wing and top power play spot alongside David Pastrnak, the only player on Boston who drives the play offensively for them. While Geekie was a massive revelation with his 11-game point streak to end the season, including nine goals and 10 assists, the five-on-five shooting percentage the entire year landed at 12.8 percent, which is just not sustainable even for the superstars like MacKinnon, McDavid, Kucherov, etc. All the signs point to a massive regression in Geekie’s production, and if you can swing a trade for a younger forward, I would advocate for that move. A contender may believe that Geekie can continue to produce next to Pastrnak if he stays in Boston, so leveraging that to acquire someone like Matt Coronato or Cole Perfetti, to name a few, would be wise.
Jakob Chychrun:
This season, the Washington Capitals have surpassed everyone’s expectations from both the team’s success and fantasy production perspective. While it is true that they made many real improvements with their trades and free agency acquisitions, Jakob Chychrun is one of the Capitals players I would want to sell this offseason, as his 20-goal season will give him the trade value to cash in at peak value. Especially talking about Chychrun’s season, he produced 20 goals and 47 points in 74 games, which helped him net an eight-year extension at nine million dollars AAV. The 20 goals came with 179 shots on goal, 59 hits, and 87 blocks, respectively.
Chychrun does have a few signs that his production was too high, even at this rate, starting with his five-on-five shooting percentage as a defenceman, which was 11 percent. If you look at Zach Werenski and Cale Makar’s five-on-five shooting percentages, the two best fantasy defencemen this season, they were at a much more reasonable 9.3 percent. The Capitals were the most efficient team at even strength this season, and teams that generally finish near the top regress to the league average the following season. Chychrun, despite having more chances than deserved to rack up points, did not even crack the 50-point mark. On the 20 goals, however, while that was impressive, especially for a defenceman, that came behind a shooting percentage of 11. That is not sustainable for any defenceman, even a Makar who shot at 12.2 percent and will likely fall back down to around the prior two years at nine percent. I would see if you can sell Chychrun for another defenceman, someone more stable in their production, like a Charlie McAvoy with a strong peripheral floor when healthy or a younger player like Thomas Harley if the owner is not a believer in him holding the top power-play unit over a healthy Miro Heiskanen. While Chychrun has had a strong track record of scoring goals when healthy, this is someone I want to trade this offseason.
Rickard Rakell:
Despite the Pittsburgh Penguins having another disappointing season when it comes to team success, Rickard Rakell had a fantastic season with 35 goals and assists for 70 points in 81 games. His career-best season was helped because he could play alongside Sidney Crosby predominantly at even strength and on the power play. His peripheral contributions boost his value, and he totalled 115 hits and 77 blocks, respectively, with the blocks especially impressive for a forward.
That said, this is the perfect time to sell now on Rakell’s value while you can, before he ages and Pittsburgh descends further into mediocrity and an inevitable rebuild. He is turning 32 on May 5th, and some warning signs make him a perfect player to send to a contending roster, so that you can position yourself better long-term. The first red flag for Rakell is that his 35 goals came at a 17.2 shooting percentage, when his highest shooting percentage since joining Pittsburgh was down at 11.5 percent. Extrapolating that to the 203 shots on goal he managed this season would mean he would drop to 23 goals and be around the 60-point range. My second concern with Rakell is that as Pittsburgh pivots towards a younger core, Rakell will be deprioritized even if he stays. If he gets traded soon, the landing spot will likely not be an improvement when accounting for deployment purposes.
Some players you can target for Rakell include Kent Johnson, Troy Terry, and Jared McCann. These wingers are either much younger and have more upside in Johnson or guys in their late 20s in Terry and McCann with a stronger track record and situation around them to produce more than Rakell for the foreseeable future. Take this opportunity to thank Rakell for his services this year for your rosters, but be smart and see what is out there when looking to improve for the long term.
Connor McMichael:
The last player on the list, Connor McMichael, was another Washington Capitals player who had a fantastic season. McMichael produced 26 goals, 31 assists, and 57 points in 82 games, which is impressive considering he was primarily a bottom-six player last season. While it was good to see this improvement from a young player, I would not go actively attempting to buy McMichael in your keeper and dynasty leagues due to a few key factors that helped fuel his exponential increase in production. The first primary issue is that McMichael’s five-on-five shooting percentage was 12 percent, which suggests that while he was on the ice at even strength, the Capitals were unsustainably scoring goals compared to the league average. The team’s five-on-five shooting percentage was 10.61 compared to the Capitals, leading the NHL this season. McMichael was incredibly fortunate to have this specific metric go his way.
When taking a deeper look at McMichael’s production and season, the second significant issue is his secondary assist rate, which jumped from 33 percent last season to 58 percent this year. As is a common trend with many players on this list, a big reason some players can push into career year seasons is factors such as the assist totals being inflated by more secondary assists, which are less controllable than primary assists. The final factor that concerns me about McMichael is that the supporting cast in Washington may push him out of the top six and definitely out of consistent first power-play unit responsibilities.
While Alex Ovechkin is set to retire or leave the NHL soon, Aliaksei Protas will likely slide into that top line role alongside Dylan Strome and one of Tom Wilson or Ryan Leonard. The second line fixtures will be Pierre-Luc Dubois and the other right wing of Wilson or Leonard. McMichael may be able to hold onto that spot, but Washington has no long-term shortage of options, such as Andrew Cristall, Hendrix Lapierre, and Ivan Miroshnichenko, to name a few. Combine the unsustainable metrics that greatly favoured McMichael’s production jump this season, and it’s a good time to see what offers are out there for McMichael, selling at likely one of his highest points value-wise. Consider other young forwards who may have a secure role in the top six and in the first power play unit, such as Coronato and Johnson.
Thank you for reading this article. As always, you can find more of my content here on Continuous Forecheck! As the written articles ramp up at Apples & Ginos and on my site, we will launch a new element soon.
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